大越期货燃料油早报-20260331

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the Middle - East war situation and military threats from Houthi rebels supported by Iran, the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has risen slightly. With the Middle - East entering the power - generation season in April, more high - sulfur fuel oil will be consumed. Meanwhile, the marine fuel demand in Singapore is stable, and the market supply may be insufficient. The low - sulfur fuel oil market in Singapore remains tight, and with geopolitical support, fuel oil prices are operating at a high level. The FU2605 is expected to operate in the range of 4550 - 4700, and the LU2605 in the range of 5150 - 5350 [3]. - The market is driven by the resonance of supply affected by geopolitical risks and neutral demand. The risk is a quick cease - fire in the Middle - East [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The price of the FU main contract futures increased from 4439 to 4621, a rise of 182 or 4.10%. The price of the LU main contract futures increased from 5109 to 5380, a rise of 271 or 5.30%. The FU basis decreased from 570 to 535, a decrease of 34.81 or 6.11%. The LU basis decreased from 859 to 620, a decrease of 240 or 28% [5]. - In the spot market, the price of Zhoushan high - sulfur fuel remained unchanged at 866.00, while the price of Zhoushan low - sulfur fuel increased from 860.00 to 865.00, a rise of 5.00 or 0.58%. The price of Singapore high - sulfur fuel increased from 711.79 to 733.43, a rise of 21.64 or 3.04%. The price of Singapore low - sulfur fuel increased from 850.50 to 855.44, a rise of 4.94 or 0.58%. The price of Middle - East high - sulfur fuel increased from 648.82 to 670.49, a rise of 21.67 or 3.34%. The price of Singapore diesel increased from 1570.21 to 1724.27, a rise of 154.06 or 9.81% [6]. 3.2 Long and Short Concerns - Bullish factors: Middle - East situation turmoil and poor strait passage [4]. - Bearish factors: The Trump administration's TACO reappearance and upstream crude oil under pressure [4]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Fundamental: The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market structure has risen slightly due to the Middle - East war situation. The cash spreads of high - sulfur fuel oil and 0.5% sulfur marine fuel both fell to a three - week low in the week ending March 27 [3]. - Basis: The basis of Singapore high - sulfur fuel oil is 535 yuan/ton, and that of Singapore low - sulfur fuel oil is 620 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [3]. - Inventory: The Singapore fuel oil inventory in the week of March 25 was 2659.9 million barrels, an increase of 173 million barrels [3]. - Market trend: The price is above the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward [3]. - Main positions: The main position of high - sulfur fuel oil is short, with short positions decreasing. The main position of low - sulfur fuel oil is long, with long positions increasing [3]. 3.4 Spread Data No information provided. 3.5 Inventory Data - The Singapore fuel oil inventory data from January 7, 2026, to March 25, 2026, shows the inventory and its changes over time. For example, on January 7, 2026, the inventory was 2270.9 million barrels with an increase of 5 million barrels, and on March 25, 2026, the inventory was 2659.9 million barrels with an increase of 173 million barrels [8].