供增需弱，粕类短期弱势震荡

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that due to increased supply and weak demand, meal products will experience short - term weak fluctuations. The price of US soybeans has returned to a volatile state, and the short - term pressure on meal products remains. Overall, meal products will maintain a range - bound oscillation [1][3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Middle East Situation May Cool Down, and US Soybeans Return to Fluctuation - The Middle East situation is still variable, and the impact on shipping remains to be observed. The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran continues, and there are uncertainties about the expansion of the attack scope and the US's island - taking actions [4][7]. - The US bio - fuel policy has been implemented. The production and consumption targets of biodiesel and renewable diesel have increased by over 60% year - on - year. The US government plans to re - allocate 70% of the unfulfilled bio - fuel blending obligations of small refineries to large - scale refineries. The market interprets this as the end of positive news. Affected by rising fertilizer prices, the planting area of new - season US soybeans is expected to increase by 3 - 5 million acres year - on - year. The 2026/27 soybean planting area is expected to be 85 million acres, with a yield of 4.45 billion bushels [8][9]. - South American soybeans are on the market. The annual output of South American soybeans is basically in line with expectations, but Brazilian soybean exports are affected by the Middle East situation [10][11][14]. - There are still variables in Sino - US trade negotiations. China's procurement of US soybeans has basically reached 12 million tons, and the two sides continue to hold consultations on trade relations. Trump's visit to China in early April has been postponed to mid - May, and the final time is still uncertain [18][19]. 3.2 Increased Supply and Weak Demand, Short - Term Pressure on Meal Products Remains - Regarding the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, before the Middle East conflict, the shipping schedule of imported soybeans was planned, and after the conflict, the actual arrival was 4.91 million tons, 1.83 million tons less than expected. The cost of imported Brazilian soybeans has increased by 5 - 10%. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains at a relatively high level, the unexecuted contracts of oil mills have slightly declined, the soybean inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the meal inventory has returned to a normal level. Domestic downstream procurement has weakened, and the提货 volume is at a high level in the same period of history [20][24][27]. - The import of Canadian rapeseed is basically unaffected. The arrival of imported rapeseed has increased, but the import profit of rapeseed has been squeezed by rising costs. The rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills has increased slightly and remains at a low level in the short term. The rapeseed inventory of oil mills has slightly decreased, and the rapeseed meal inventory has increased from a low level [44][46][50]. - The demand for meal products is still in the off - season after the Spring Festival. Pig inventory was high in February, with a decrease in large - pig inventory and an increase in small - pig inventory in March. Pig prices have continued to decline recently, and the average slaughter weight has bottomed out and rebounded. Domestic pig - farming profits have seen an expanded loss [38][40][42]. 3.3 Meal Products Overall Maintain a Range - Bound Oscillation - The increased arrival of imported soybeans and rapeseed exerts pressure on meal product prices. The short - term demand is weak, but the medium - term outlook is positive. The Middle East situation and Sino - US trade relations are still variable, and China has a high degree of dependence on imported soybeans and rapeseed [53]. - The bullish factors for meal products include the digestion of supply - side negatives over time, the gradual recovery of demand from a low level, uncertainties in the Middle East situation and Sino - US trade relations, and a time lag in the appearance of imported inflation. The bearish factors are the high future arrival volume of imported Brazilian soybeans and the short - term off - season demand in China [55]. - The strategy for meal products: In March, meal products rose and then fell, and in April, they may bottom out and rebound, maintaining a volatile pattern. Soybean meal is stronger than rapeseed meal, and the price difference will widen. For single - side trading, it is advisable to go long when the price of meal products falls. For options, it is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options [63].