大越期货PVC期货早报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of PVC increased this week. Next week, it is expected that the number of maintenance will decrease and the scheduled production will increase slightly. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, but the current demand may remain sluggish. PVC2605 is expected to fluctuate in the range of 5413 - 5689. The fundamentals are bearish [8][9]. - The positive factors include the resumption of supply, cost support from calcium carbide and ethylene, and export benefits. The negative factors are the rebound in overall supply pressure, high - level and slow - consuming inventory, and weak domestic and foreign demand. The main logic is the strong overall supply pressure and the poor recovery of domestic demand [12][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In February 2026, PVC production was 1.985126 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.60%. This week, the capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises was 80.92%, a month - on - month increase of 0.01 percentage points. The production of calcium carbide - based enterprises was 366,490 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%, and the production of ethylene - based enterprises was 128,274 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.10%. Supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that maintenance will decrease next week with a slight increase in scheduled production [8]. - Demand: The overall downstream operating rate was 45.96%, a month - on - month increase of 0.3 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The operating rates of downstream profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin were 37.39% (a month - on - month increase of 0.04 percentage points), 41.2% (a month - on - month increase of 2 percentage points), 59.29% (a month - on - month increase of 0.86 percentage points), and 70.95% (a month - on - month decrease of 2.88 percentage points) respectively. The shipping cost is expected to rise, and the domestic PVC export price is not competitive. Current demand may remain sluggish [9]. - Cost: The profit of calcium carbide - based production was - 34.85 yuan/ton, turning from profit to loss with a month - on - month decrease of 81.00%, lower than the historical average. The profit of ethylene - based production was - 777.75 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase in losses of 79.40%, lower than the historical average. The double - ton price difference was 2,655.67 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month profit increase of 0.00%, lower than the historical average. Scheduled production may face pressure [9]. - Basis: On March 30, the price of East China SG - 5 was 5,650 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 05 contract was 99 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is bullish [9]. - Inventory: The in - factory inventory was 338,535 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.35%. The calcium carbide - based factory inventory was 255,974 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.56%, and the ethylene - based factory inventory was 82,561 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 17.41%. The social inventory was 600,210 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.68%. The inventory days of production enterprises were 5.6 days, a month - on - month decrease of 6.66%. It is neutral [9]. - Market: MA20 is upward, and the futures price of the 05 contract closed below MA20. It is neutral [9]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and short positions increased. It is bearish [9]. - Expectation: The cost of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production is weakening, and the overall cost is weakening. The supply pressure increased this week, and it is expected that the scheduled production will increase next week. The overall inventory is at a neutral level, and the current demand may remain sluggish. Continuously monitor macro - policies and export dynamics. PVC2605 will fluctuate in the range of 5413 - 5689 [9]. 3.2 PVC Market Overview - Yesterday's Market Data: The registered warehouse receipt quantity, spot benchmark price, futures closing price, and their changes are presented in detail in the report, including data on the Dalian Commodity Exchange warehouse receipts, East China SG - 5, and various price indicators. There are also data on partial inter - month price differences and basis [16][19]. 3.3 PVC Futures Market - Basis Trend: The report shows the historical basis trend of PVC, including the relationship between the basis, PVC East China market price, and the main contract closing price [22]. - Price and Volume Trends: The report presents the price and trading volume trends of PVC futures in 2026, including the opening price, highest price, lowest price, closing price, and moving averages (MA10, MA5, MA20, MA60, MA120). It also shows the changes in the positions of the top 5 and top 20 seats [25]. - Spread Analysis: The report shows the historical spread trends of the main contracts, such as the 1 - 9 spread and 5 - 9 spread from 2024 to 2025 [28]. 3.4 PVC Fundamentals - Calcium Carbide - Based: It includes the price, cost, profit, operating rate, inventory, and production of raw materials such as semi - coke, calcium carbide, liquid chlorine, raw salt, caustic soda, and the cost - profit situation of the chlor - alkali industry. There are also data on the capacity utilization rate, profit, and production of PVC produced by the calcium carbide method [31][34][36][38][42]. - Demand Trend: It includes the daily sales volume of PVC traders, weekly pre - sales volume, production - sales ratio, apparent consumption, downstream average operating rate, and the operating rates of profiles, pipes, films, and paste resin. It also shows the investment, construction, new construction, sales, and completion data of the real estate industry, as well as the social financing scale increment, M2 increment, local government new special bonds, and infrastructure investment data [47][51][56][58]. - Inventory: It includes the exchange warehouse receipts, calcium carbide - based factory inventory, ethylene - based factory inventory, social inventory, and production enterprise inventory days [60]. - Ethylene - Based: It includes the import volume of vinyl chloride and dichloroethane, PVC export volume, FOB spread of the ethylene - based method, and vinyl chloride import spread [62]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the monthly supply - demand situation of PVC from 2025 to 2026, including export, demand, social inventory, factory inventory, production, import, and supply - demand difference [64].