2026-03-31甲醇早报-20260331

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The geopolitical conflict will determine the market fluctuation direction. In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, and the local methanol price has strong operating resilience. The cost transmission is smooth inland, downstream开工 enthusiasm has increased, and the upstream methanol factories are continuously destocking. The port inventory is also decreasing. If the Middle East war continues, the methanol futures and spot prices will continue to be strong; if the war situation eases, there may be a phased correction, but the correction amplitude may be limited inland. The port market is expected to continue to be strong this week. It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate strongly this week, with MA2605 operating in the range of 3200 - 3500 [5]. Summary According to the Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The geopolitical conflict is the decisive factor for future market trends. In the short - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are good, and the methanol price is expected to fluctuate strongly this week. The MA2605 contract is expected to operate between 3200 - 3500 [5]. 2. Multi - Air Concerns - Likely to be Bullish: Some devices are shut down or operating at reduced loads; Iranian methanol production is at a low level, and imports in February are expected to shrink; methanol factories in the production areas have actively destocked, and current inventories are low; some downstream users are still stocking up before the Spring Festival [6]. - Likely to be Bearish: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and there is no shortage of supply; as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries such as formaldehyde are shutting down for holidays, and demand for raw materials is weakening; major olefin devices at ports are shut down, and local demand is significantly weakened; most downstream users have completed pre - holiday stocking, and short - term demand has decreased [7]. 3. Fundamental Data - Spot and Futures Prices: The spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 3360 yuan/ton, and the 05 - contract basis is 41, with the spot price at a premium to the futures price. The futures closing price is 3319 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton from the previous value [5][8]. - Inventory: As of March 26, 2026, the total social inventory of methanol in East and South China ports is 75.62 tons, a decrease of 7.05 tons from the previous period; the total available and tradable methanol in coastal areas (Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and South China) has decreased by 2.21 tons to 41.93 tons [5]. - Price Changes: The weekly increase in the spot price of methanol in Jiangsu is 9.50%, in Shandong South is 29.87%, in Hebei is 0.00%, in Inner Mongolia is 9.67%, and in Fujian is 9.57%. The weekly increase in the futures price is 5.73% [9][11]. - Production Profit: The weekly increase in coal - based methanol production profit is 140 yuan/ton, in natural - gas - based methanol production profit is 690 yuan/ton, and in coke - oven - gas - based methanol production profit is - 602 yuan/ton [22]. - Operating Rate: The national weighted average operating rate of methanol is 74.90%, a decrease of 3.81% from the previous week; the operating rate in the northwest region is 81.54%, a decrease of 3.55% from the previous week [8][23]. - External Market Prices: The CFR price in China's main port is 414 US dollars/ton, an increase of 6.70% from the previous week; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 655 US dollars/ton, an increase of 17.70% from the previous week [26]. - Traditional Downstream Products: The price of formaldehyde remains unchanged, the price of dimethyl ether remains unchanged, and the price of acetic acid increases by 8.11% [33]. - Production Profit and Load of Downstream Products: The production profit of formaldehyde is - 403 yuan/ton, with a load of 30.98%; the production profit of dimethyl ether is - 320 yuan/ton, with a load of 9.79%; the production profit of acetic acid is 867 yuan/ton, with a load of 72.32%; the production profit of MTO is - 5248 yuan/ton, with a load of 84.18% [38][41][46][51]. 4. Maintenance Status - Domestic Methanol Plants: Many domestic methanol plants are under maintenance, including Shaanxi Black Cat, Qinghai Zhonghao, Shaanxi Huangling, etc. The maintenance time and loss vary by plant [61]. - Overseas Methanol Plants: Some Iranian plants are in the process of restarting or operating at a low level, and plants in other regions such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally [62]. - Olefin Plants: Some olefin plants are under maintenance or operating at a low level, such as Shaanxi Qingcheng Clean Energy, while others are operating stably [63].