沪铜产业日报-20260331

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper main contract shows a volatile trend with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. Fundamentally, the TC spot index of copper concentrate continues to reach new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply is gradually strengthening, providing a strong cost - support for copper prices. The capacity utilization rate of copper smelters is gradually recovering, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventory in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production to some extent. On the demand side, with the arrival of the peak season and the decline of copper prices due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises has been boosted, and they are stocking up at low prices. The inflection point of social inventory depletion is confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slight increase in supply and improved demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD shows that the double - line is above the 0 - axis and the green column is slightly expanding. The suggestion is to go long on dips with a light position and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 95,340 yuan/ton, down 420 yuan; LME 3 - month copper is 12,238 dollars/ton, up 43 dollars. The main contract's inter - month spread is 10 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main contract's open interest of Shanghai copper is 185,749 hands, up 479 hands; the position of the top 20 futures of Shanghai copper is - 61,409 hands, down 6,271 hands. LME copper inventory is 362,600 tons, up 2,350 tons; the warehouse - receipt cancellation of LME copper is 67,600 tons, up 4,925 tons; the inventory of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 359,135 tons, down 51,986 tons; the warehouse receipt of cathode copper in the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 221,261 tons, down 2,856 tons; COMEX copper inventory is 588,121 short tons, down 798 short tons [2]. - Spot Market: The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 95,600 yuan/ton, up 405 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 95,735 yuan/ton, up 420 yuan. The CIF Shanghai (pyrometallurgical, ER): bonded warehouse price is 68.5 dollars/ton, unchanged; the average premium of Yangshan copper is 65 dollars/ton, down 1 dollar. The basis of the CU main contract is 260 yuan/ton, up 825 yuan; the LME copper spread (0 - 3) is - 82.55 dollars/ton, down 11.69 dollars [2]. 2. Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, up 231.03 million tons. The TC of domestic copper smelters is - 68.85 dollars/kiloton, down 1.53 dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 86,000 yuan/metal ton, up 410 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 86,700 yuan/metal ton, up 410 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,100 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700 yuan/ton, down 700 yuan [2]. 3. Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.6 million tons, up 9 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000 tons, down 60,000 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire in Shanghai is 62,940 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; the price of 2 copper (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,200 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan. The output of copper products is 222.9 million tons, up 0.3 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 837.53 billion yuan, up 79.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 9,612.11 billion yuan, down 11.10 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345,500 pieces, up 415,345,500 pieces [2]. 4. Industry News - The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to optimize the tax - refund for outbound tourists 2.0, introduce measures to expand and upgrade commodity consumption, and promote the continuous warming of "shopping in China". It will also promote the development of the automotive aftermarket and support the development of leisure consumption such as cruise yachts and RV camping in qualified areas. - According to Cui Dongshu, the secretary - general of the Passenger Car Association, due to the low base in January 2025, the import of automobiles from January to February 2026 was 70,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 25%. In February 2026, the import of automobiles was 32,000 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 12% and a month - on - month decrease of 17% from January, and the market growth rate is gradually returning. - The Ministry of Commerce will implement a special action to boost consumption, optimize the policy of trading in old consumer goods for new ones, promote the reform of automobile circulation and consumption, and implement a quality - improvement and people - benefiting action for service consumption. - Fed Chairman Powell said that the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignore" the impact of the energy shock caused by the war between the US, Israel and Iran. But he also warned that if price increases start to change the public's long - term inflation expectations, the Fed may not be able to stand by. - New York Fed President Williams said that the current interest rate level is in a favorable position. The Middle East conflict may bring a major supply shock, which will both push up price pressure and suppress economic activity. He implied that the Fed's most appropriate response at present is to take no action for the time being. - Fed Governor Milan continued to call for interest rate cuts, saying that policymakers should ignore the current rise in energy prices unless there are signs of long - term impact. Milan still believes that interest rates can be cut by 100 basis points this year [2].