瑞达期货螺纹钢产业链日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On Tuesday, the RB2605 contract decreased with reduced positions. The macro - situation shows that according to US officials, President Trump told his assistants that he is willing to end the military action against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. In terms of supply - demand, the weekly output of rebar decreased, and the capacity utilization rate dropped to 43.37%. Downstream demand continued to increase, and inventory continued to decline. Overall, the fundamentals of rebar changed little, the situation between the US and Iran showed signs of easing, and the decline in oil prices led to a downward trend in the black - series commodities. Technically, the 1 - hour MACD indicator of the RB2605 contract shows that DIFF and DEA are adjusting downward, and the red bar turns green. It is recommended for short - term trading and attention should be paid to risk control [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the RB main contract was 3,121.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan; the position volume was 901,052 lots, a decrease of 75,389 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the RB contract was - 58,835 lots, a decrease of 10,402 lots; the spread between the RB5 - 10 contracts was - 25 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan; the daily warehouse receipt of the RB on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 99,613 tons, with no change; the spread between the HC2605 - RB2605 contracts was 173 yuan/ton, an increase of 4 yuan [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,260.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Hangzhou (actual weight) was 3,344 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21 yuan; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Guangzhou (theoretical weight) was 3,440.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of HRB400E 20MM in Tianjin (theoretical weight) was 3,210.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the basis of the RB main contract was 139.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2 yuan; the spot price difference between hot - rolled coil and rebar in Hangzhou was 50.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 60.8% PB powder ore at Qingdao Port was 785.00 yuan/wet ton, a decrease of 7 yuan; the price of first - grade metallurgical coke at Tianjin Port (FOB) was 1,490.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of 6 - 8mm scrap steel in Tangshan (tax - excluded) was 2,170.00 yuan/ton, with no change; the price of Q235 billet in Hebei was 2,980.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan; the inventory of iron ore at 45 ports (weekly) was 16,996.84 million tons, a decrease of 105.83 million tons; the inventory of coke at sample coking plants (weekly) was 49.76 million tons, a decrease of 2.59 million tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory of coke at sample steel mills (weekly) was 691.73 million tons, an increase of 3.95 million tons; the inventory of billets in Tangshan (weekly) was 239.94 million tons, a decrease of 9.59 million tons; the blast - furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 81.05%, an increase of 1.25 percentage points; the blast - furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills (weekly) was 86.65%, an increase of 1.10 percentage points; the output of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 197.87 million tons, a decrease of 5.46 million tons; the capacity utilization rate of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 43.37%, a decrease of 1.20 percentage points; the inventory of rebar at sample steel mills (weekly) was 219.16 million tons, a decrease of 17.04 million tons; the social inventory of rebar in 35 cities (weekly) was 642.75 million tons, a decrease of 10.46 million tons; the operating rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills (weekly) was 69.79%, an increase of 3.12 percentage points; the monthly output of domestic crude steel was 6,818 million tons, a decrease of 169 million tons; the monthly output of Chinese steel bars was 1,375 million tons, an increase of 19 million tons; the net export volume of steel (monthly) was 747.00 million tons, an increase of 18.00 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real - estate climate index (monthly) was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment completion (monthly) was - 3.80%, a decrease of 5.60 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real - estate development investment completion (monthly) was - 17.20%, a decrease of 6.10 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment (monthly) was - 2.20%, a decrease of 2.20 percentage points; the cumulative value of housing construction area (monthly) was 659,890 million square meters, a decrease of 124,518 million square meters; the cumulative value of new housing construction area (monthly) was 58,770 million square meters, a decrease of 53,686 million square meters; the unsold area of commercial housing (monthly) was 40,236.00 million square meters, an increase of 3,516.00 million square meters [2]. 3.6 Industry News - In March, the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was 50.4%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing industry's prosperity level. On March 30, US President Trump posted on a social platform that if an agreement with Iran cannot be reached in the short term and the Strait of Hormuz is not immediately reopened, he will blow up and completely raze all of Iran's power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island, and possibly all desalination plants [2].