瑞达期货甲醇产业日报-20260331

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol port inventory continues to decline, and the import demand has weakened significantly due to domestic impact and resistance to absolute high prices. The arrival volume of foreign ships remains low. The capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants has increased, and the loads of inland and port enterprises have been raised to varying degrees. It is expected that the port methanol inventory may continue to decline this week, and the de - stocking amplitude depends on the change in提货量. The MTO industry's starting rate is expected to increase to over 90% this week. The short - term price of methanol is expected to fluctuate sharply, and it is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the geopolitical situation [2] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 3229 yuan/ton, a decrease of 90 yuan/ton; the 5 - 9 spread of methanol is 271 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest of methanol is 590461 lots, a decrease of 57513 lots; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders of methanol is 12026 lots, an increase of 12119 lots. The number of warehouse receipts of methanol is 7835 sheets, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 3500 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan/ton; the price in Inner Mongolia is 2570 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 930 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton; the basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is 181 yuan/ton, an increase of 157 yuan/ton. The CFR price of methanol at the main Chinese port is 421 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 680 US dollars/ton, an increase of 25 US dollars/ton. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 455 euros/ton, a decrease of 1 euro/ton; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 259 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 28 US dollars/ton [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 2.89 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.19 US dollars [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 86.05 tons, a decrease of 8.47 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 29.5 tons, a decrease of 2.15 tons. The import profit of methanol is - 3.11 yuan/ton, an increase of 192.2 yuan/ton; the monthly import volume is 88.47 tons, a decrease of 19.92 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 435000 tons, a decrease of 50400 tons; the operating rate of methanol enterprises is 92.73%, a decrease of 0.14% [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 45.61%, an increase of 3.18%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 5.12%, a decrease of 0.37%; the operating rate of acetic acid is 84.6%, a decrease of 0.8%; the operating rate of MTBE is 69.89%, an increase of 0.38%; the operating rate of olefins is 85.58%, an increase of 1.5%. The on - disk profit of methanol - to - olefin is - 1384 yuan/ton, an increase of 104 yuan/ton [2] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 77.15%, a decrease of 3.23%; the 40 - day historical volatility of methanol is 62.29%, a decrease of 0.03%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options of methanol is 81.51%, an increase of 6.94%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of methanol is 81.49%, an increase of 6.91% [2] 3.7 Industry News - As of March 25, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 43.50 tons, a decrease of 5.04 tons from the previous period, a 10.39% decrease; the pending orders of sample enterprises were 28.39 tons, an increase of 0.46 tons from the previous period, a 1.64% increase. As of March 25, the total inventory of Chinese methanol ports was 115.55 tons, a decrease of 10.62 tons from the previous data. The inventory in East China and South China decreased. The methanol port inventory continued to decline as expected. Recently, the production loss of domestic methanol due to maintenance and production reduction is less than the output of restored production capacity, and the overall output has increased. Last week, inland enterprises reduced their inventory. Due to domestic impact and resistance to absolute high prices, the import demand has weakened significantly. As of March 26, the sample enterprises in Inner Mongolia and northern Shaanxi had good sales, the long - term contracts were executed smoothly, the market rose overall, the downstream procurement was active, and the enterprise inventory decreased [2]