瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260331

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the continuous impact of the Middle - East geopolitical situation on crude oil and shipping, the supply of crude oil and butadiene in the region is tight. Under the influence of soaring raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened significantly, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down, and the Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene rubber plant's scheduled inspection has further reduced supply. It is expected that the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decline [2]. - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly targets, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate, but some individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance plans at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran geopolitical conflict, the futures price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate sharply in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to changes in the geopolitical situation [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 17,350 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 375. The open interest of the main contract is 72,237, a decrease of 14,968. The 5 - 6 spread of synthetic rubber is 195 yuan/ton, and the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber in warehouses is 24,980 tons, a decrease of 30 tons [2]. Spot Market - The mainstream prices of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from Qilu Petrochemical, Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong, Daqing Petrochemical in Shanghai, and Maoming Petrochemical in Guangdong are all 18,050 yuan/ton, with no change. The basis of synthetic rubber is - 85 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil is 112.78 US dollars/barrel, and the price of naphtha CFR Japan is 1,206.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 63.5 US dollars/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene is 1,450 US dollars/ton, the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 2,580 US dollars/ton, the market price of butadiene in Shandong is 18,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton, and the price of WTI crude oil is 102.88 US dollars/barrel [2]. Upstream Situation - The weekly production capacity of butadiene is 15.93 million tons/week, a decrease of 0.01 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene is 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refinery atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points. The monthly production of cis - butadiene rubber is 14.04 million tons, a decrease of 0.95 million tons. The capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber is 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber is - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons. The manufacturer's inventory of cis - butadiene rubber is 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons, and the trader's inventory is 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points, and the operating rate of full - steel tires is 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points. The monthly production of full - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces, and the monthly production of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces. The inventory days of full - steel tires in Shandong are 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days, and the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong are 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2]. Industry News - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a month - on - month increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a month - on - month increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points. The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly targets, supporting the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a month - on - month decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and a year - on - year decrease of about 8% compared with 81,400 vehicles in the same period last year. From January to February this year, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58%, and the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber production enterprises decreased significantly [2].