铂钯金期货日报-20260331

Report Information - Report Name: Platinum and Palladium Futures Daily Report 2026/3/31 [1] - Researcher: Liao Hongbin [2] - Futures Practitioner Qualification Number: F30825507 [2] - Futures Investment Consulting Practitioner Certificate Number: Z0020723 [2] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Report's Core View - The current market's main contradictions revolve around the repeated situation between the US and Iran, disturbances in oil prices and inflation expectations, and pressure on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. Platinum and palladium prices are mainly affected by gold and silver prices and macro - expectations, with platinum performing slightly better than palladium [2]. - In 2026, the global platinum market is expected to have a shortage of 240,000 ounces, and the year - end above - ground inventory may drop to 2.613 million ounces, with the inventory buffer continuing to shrink. The medium - term tight logic of platinum remains unchanged [2]. - The demand for platinum in automotive catalysts is supported by hybrid and internal combustion engine models. The Chinese fiberglass industry may become a new source of palladium demand in the future, but currently, palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline - vehicle catalysts, with a relatively single structure and long - term suppression from the increase in electric - vehicle penetration and recycling supply [2]. - Market volatility may remain high. Due to the volatile situation between the US and Iran, platinum and palladium are difficult to break through the strong resistance above. Short - term funds are advised to wait and see, while long - term investors can gradually build long positions in platinum on dips. The support levels for London platinum and palladium are $1,800 per ounce and $1,300 per ounce respectively [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - Platinum主力合约收盘价: 493.10 yuan/gram, palladium主力合约收盘价: 361.40 yuan/gram, up 3.20 yuan [2]. - Platinum主力合约持仓量: 10,387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; palladium主力合约持仓量: 3,179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2]. 3.2现货市场 - Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995): 495.06 yuan/gram, up 5.41 yuan; Yangtze River palladium spot average price: 341.00 yuan/gram, up 12.00 yuan [2]. - Platinum主力合约基差: 1.96 yuan/gram, up 4.61 yuan; palladium主力合约基差: - 20.40 yuan/gram, up 8.80 yuan [2]. 3.3供需情况 - Platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 9,966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly): 3,003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2]. - 2025 estimated total platinum supply: 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium supply: 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2]. - 2025 estimated total platinum demand: 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; 2025 estimated total palladium demand: 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2]. 3.4宏观数据 - Dollar index: 100.51, up 0.32; 10 - year US Treasury real yield: 2.04%, down 0.44%; VIX volatility index: 30.61, down 0.09 [2]. 3.5行业消息 - US President Trump has indicated to his staff that he is willing to end the US military operation against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains basically closed, which may extend Tehran's influence in the key waterway and postpone the complex task of reopening the strait [2]. - Trump said that Iran has agreed to "most of the content" in the "15 - point cease - fire plan", and the US is in serious consultations with Iran to end the military operation. He threatened to destroy all of Iran's power plants if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term [2]. - Fed Chairman Powell said that in the context of the energy shock caused by the US - Israel war against Iran, the Fed tends to keep interest rates unchanged and temporarily "ignore" the impact. But he warned that if price increases start to change the public's long - term inflation expectations, the Fed may not be able to stand by [2]. - New York Fed President Williams said that in the context of major disruptions to the supply chain caused by the Middle East conflict, the current interest - rate level is in a favorable position. Fed Governor Milan continued to call for an interest - rate cut, believing that policymakers should ignore the current increase in energy prices unless there are signs of long - term impact, and still thinks the interest rate can be cut by 100 basis points this year [2]. 3.6重点关注 - March 31, 22:00: US March Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index [2] - March 31, 21:00: US January S&P House Price Index [2] - April 1, 20:15: US March ADP Employment Number [2] - April 1, 22:00: US March ISM Manufacturing PMI [2] - April 2, 20:30: US Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending March 28 [2] - April 2, 20:30: US February Trade Balance [2] - April 3, 20:30: US March Non - farm Payrolls Change [2]