国防军工行业深度研究：AI浪潮驱动海外燃机需求井喷，国产两机赛道有望估值重塑

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Outperform" for the industry, indicating a positive outlook compared to the broader market [2]. Core Insights - The surge in AI computing power is driving a significant increase in demand for gas turbines, particularly in the context of AI data centers facing power shortages. This presents a unique opportunity for domestic suppliers in the "two-machine" sector to enhance their valuations [8][10]. - The report highlights that the AI data center's electricity demand is characterized by high total energy consumption, high power density, and high dynamic load, necessitating the adoption of gas turbines as a reliable power solution [8][30]. - The supply side is experiencing a "seller's market" due to the limited capacity of major global manufacturers, creating a historic opportunity for domestic suppliers to capture market share [9][10]. Summary by Sections Section 1: AI Computing and Power Crisis - AI data centers are experiencing a power crisis due to exponential growth in model parameters and computational requirements, leading to a "power anxiety" [22][30]. - The energy consumption during the training phase of AI models is extremely high, with significant power demands that traditional power grids cannot meet [32][33]. Section 2: Market Opportunities - The gas turbine market is projected to see new orders exceeding $192 billion over the next decade, with the AI data center sector alone expected to generate a market space of $22 billion from 2026 to 2030 [8][9]. - The maintenance and service market for gas turbines is also anticipated to grow significantly, driven by the increasing installed base [9][10]. Section 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - Major global manufacturers like GE Vernova, Siemens Energy, and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries are facing capacity constraints, with orders sold out until 2028, indicating a strong demand for gas turbines [9][10]. - Domestic suppliers in the "two-machine" sector are positioned to benefit from this supply chain disruption, as they have gained international certifications and can offer competitive pricing and flexible production capabilities [10][11]. Section 4: Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on system integrators and manufacturers such as Jerry Holdings, Dongfang Electric, and Shanghai Electric, as well as core component suppliers like Yingliu Co., Wanze Co., and Aerospace Technology [11].