建信期货生猪日报-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 31, the main 2605 contract of live pigs in the futures market opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, closing with a negative line. The highest price was 10,030 yuan/ton, the lowest was 9,770 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 9,770 yuan/ton, a 2.30% drop from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 18,945 lots to 464,867 lots. The average price of ternary pigs in the spot market was 9.42 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous day [8]. - On the supply side, the monthly slaughter volume continued to increase, and the production capacity continued to be realized. The slaughter volume of the breeding sector in April may continue to increase, and the slaughter weight remained at a high level, so the supply pressure remained high, and the overall supply level was still loose. On the demand side, as the price dropped to a low level and the price difference between fat and lean pigs remained advantageous, secondary fattening continued to enter the market in small quantities in some areas. Currently, the terminal demand continued to increase slowly, the orders of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly. Overall, in the spot market, the demand continued to increase slowly, but the supply pressure was still high, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose, so the spot price was mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, with sufficient production capacity, the supply of live pigs was expected to increase slightly, and secondary fattening was constantly entering the market in small quantities. Meanwhile, it was the off - season for consumption, which provided weak support for the market. Hedging funds continued to enter the market, so the 05/07 contracts were mainly weak. Attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与操作建议 - Futures: On March 31, the main 2605 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower, fluctuated and declined, closing at 9,770 yuan/ton, down 2.30% from the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 18,945 lots to 464,867 lots [8]. - Spot: On March 31, the national average price of ternary pigs was 9.42 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous day [8]. - Supply: At the end of the month, the slaughter volume continued to increase, and the production capacity continued to be realized. The slaughter volume in April may continue to increase, and the slaughter weight remained high, so the supply pressure was still high [9]. - Demand: The price dropped to a low level, and secondary fattening continued to enter the market in small quantities in some areas. The terminal demand continued to increase slowly, the orders of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises increased slightly. On March 31, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 159,900 heads, an increase of 2,000 heads from the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 5,700 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 34,000 heads [9]. - Outlook: In the spot market, the demand continued to increase slowly, but the supply pressure was still high, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose, so the spot price was mainly fluctuating weakly. In the futures market, the 05/07 contracts were mainly weak, and attention should be paid to the rhythm and volume of subsequent secondary fattening [9]. 3.2行业要闻 - As of March 19, the expected cost of self - breeding and self - fattening was 12.21 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged week - on - week. The cost of fattening with purchased piglets was affected by both feed prices and piglet prices. The expected cost of fattening purchased piglets to 125 kg and then slaughtering was 12.15 yuan/kg, a week - on - week decrease of 0.27 yuan/kg [10]. 3.3数据概览 - As of March 19, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - fattening was - 292 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 15.6 yuan/head; the average profit per head of fattening with purchased piglets was - 189 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 10 yuan/head [20]. - In the week of March 19, the average market sales price of 6.5 - kg piglets was 294 yuan/head, a decrease of 32 yuan/head from the previous week [20]. - In the week of March 19, the average slaughter weight of national live pigs was 128.62 kg, an increase of 0.07 kg from the previous week, with a month - on - month increase of 0.05% [20]. - In the week of March 19, the cost of purchasing 110 - kg pigs and fattening them to 140 kg was 10.17 yuan/kg, a slight increase of 0.03 yuan/kg from the previous week; the cost of purchasing 125 - kg pigs and fattening them to 150 kg was 10.21 yuan/kg, remaining unchanged from the previous week. The feed price and pig price did not change significantly, the purchase cost was stable, and the secondary fattening cost did not change much [20].