建信期货股指日评-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, due to continuous geopolitical uncertainties, rising oil prices causing stagflation concerns, and cautious market sentiment during the performance disclosure period, it is difficult for the market to have a rapid V - shaped recovery. The index will maintain a range - bound oscillation. In the long - term, liquidity concerns are expected to improve after the conflict eases. As the inflection points of the macro - economic fundamentals and corporate earnings arrive, the main driving force of A - shares may gradually shift from liquidity to substantial performance improvement. Also, considering the long - term optimistic outlook for the index, one can choose the right time to try the roll - down strategy to obtain excess returns [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情回顾与后市展望 3.1.1行情回顾 - On March 31st, the Wind All - A Index fell slightly with increased volume. After a small rise at the opening, it oscillated and declined, closing down 1.42%. More than 4,000 stocks in the whole market fell. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 0.93%, 0.25%, 1.76%, and 1.91% respectively. In the futures market, the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM fell 0.87%, 0.30%, 1.79%, and 1.73% respectively (calculated by closing price) [6] 3.1.2后市展望 - External Market: Fed Chairman Powell said that long - term inflation expectations seem to be under control, but the Fed is closely monitoring these expectations to assess the impact of the war between the US, Israel and Iran. The current policy is in a suitable position and can wait and see. His statement led to a decline in the expectation of Fed rate hikes, giving short - term support to gold prices. - Domestic Market: The economic data from January to February showed that export performance far exceeded expectations, and the data of social retail sales and industrial added value were also better than expected. In terms of liquidity, the trading volume of the two markets has recently stabilized at around 2 trillion, and the margin trading balance remains at a relatively high level. - Short - term Outlook: Geopolitical uncertainties continue to fluctuate. Rising oil prices have raised concerns about stagflation, and market sentiment is expected to be relatively cautious during the performance disclosure period. It is difficult for the market to have a rapid V - shaped recovery, and it is necessary to wait for clearer signals in the geopolitical situation. The index will maintain a range - bound oscillation. - Long - term Outlook: Liquidity concerns are expected to improve after the conflict eases. China benefits from the competitive advantage of the supply chain and is more resilient. As the inflection points of the macro - economic fundamentals and corporate earnings arrive, the main driving force of A - shares may gradually shift from liquidity to substantial performance improvement. After the main contracts of IC and IM are switched to the far - month contracts, there is a deep discount again. Considering the long - term optimistic outlook for the index, one can choose the right time to try the roll - down strategy to obtain excess returns [7][8] 3.2数据概览 - The report provides multiple data charts, including the performance of domestic major indices, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), the trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, the trading volume of stock index spot, the trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, the basis trend of the main contracts, the inter - period spread trend, the share statistics of major ETF funds, and the turnover statistics of major ETFs. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][11][24] 3.3行业要闻 - Powell said that it is not yet time to determine the economic impact of the Iran war; energy price shocks are often short - term, and monetary policy transmission is too slow to hedge supply - side price pressures in real - time. Usually, such shocks are ignored, but the key premise is to closely monitor inflation expectations; long - term inflation expectations remain stable; tariffs have a one - time impact on inflation; he reiterated his commitment to bringing inflation back to 2%; he supported QE, saying that extensive research shows that buying long - term assets can lower interest rates; the Fed is closely monitoring private credit, and there is no systemic risk yet; large language models will replace a large number of automatable jobs, and the current employment environment for young people is difficult, but the prospects are optimistic; he advised the next - term Wash to avoid using monetary policy tools for other purposes. The "New Fed Wire" reported that Powell said the Fed can ignore oil price shocks but warned that patience has an end [26]