建信期货钢材日评-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On March 31, the main contracts of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures 2605 oscillated weakly, giving back the previous day's gains. The news is relatively bearish for the expected steel cost and price. From the fundamental perspective, the demand continues to recover but fails to drive the steel price to strengthen further. Instead, it declines under the drive of cost expectations. It is expected that the steel price may first decline and then rise in the future. It is still recommended to buy for hedging at low prices in the medium and long term. Attention should be paid to the further development of the BHP event and changes in the Middle East situation [6][10][11] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Future Outlook 3.1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On March 31, the prices of individual rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets declined. The rebar prices in Wuxi, Zhengzhou, Chongqing, and Hangzhou markets decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while the rebar price in Taiyuan market rose by 30 yuan/ton. The hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai and Nanjing markets both decreased by 10 yuan/ton. The daily KDJ indicators of the rebar 2605 contract and the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract are moving downward. The J and K values of the rebar 2605 contract have turned down, and the D value continues to decline. The daily MACD indicator of the rebar 2605 contract shows a death cross, and the daily MACD red bar of the hot-rolled coil 2605 contract has significantly narrowed, approaching a death cross [8] 3.1.2 Future Outlook - News: (1) According to US officials, the US President has indicated to his aides that he is willing to end the military operation against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed. US government officials estimate that forcing the reopening of the waterway would extend the military operation beyond the original 4 - 6 week time frame. Based on this, the President has decided to gradually end the current military operation after achieving the main goals of weakening Iran's navy and its missile capabilities. (2) According to a report by The West Australian on March 15, some domestic steel mills have received notice to temporarily relax the restrictions on a certain iron ore variety of BHP. It is reported that some domestic steel mills have been allowed to extract the BHP Jimblebar iron ore that was previously积压 at the port due to the ban [9][10] - Fundamentals: The weekly output of the five major steel products decreased slightly after three consecutive weeks of recovery from a low level. The destocking of factory and social inventories accelerated, and the weekly demand quickly recovered to a new high since the end of November last year. In terms of raw materials, the port iron ore inventory has declined for two consecutive weeks from the record high since December 2015. The steel mills' iron ore inventory briefly dropped to a 21 - day supply level and then replenished to 23 days. The shipment volume of imported iron ore in the past four weeks decreased by 2.9% month - on - month, and the arrival volume increased by 5.5% month - on - month. Although the supply will decline in the future, the current trend of loosening remains unchanged. From March 23 to 28, the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased slightly compared with the previous week, with an average increase of 0.4% at the Ganqimaodu Port, generally in the range of 16.6 - 20.5 tons. The coking coal inventory of coking plants has significantly recovered from a low level in the past three weeks, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills has increased steadily [10] 3.2 Industry News - Economic Data: In March, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 50.4%, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating a recovery in the manufacturing business climate. The Non - Manufacturing Business Activity Index was 50.1%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, above the critical point, showing an improvement in the non - manufacturing business climate. The Composite PMI Output Index was 50.5%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, above the critical point, indicating an overall positive business climate for Chinese enterprises [12] - Coal Production: In mid - March, the output of key monitored coal enterprises reached 67.56 million tons, an increase of 3.12 million tons or 4.8% compared with early March, and an increase of 2.52 million tons or 3.9% year - on - year. The cumulative output in the first and middle ten - days of March was 1.32 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [12] - Company Performance: - Ansteel Co., Ltd. reported an operating income of 96.052 billion yuan in 2025, a year - on - year decrease of 8.61%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was - 4.068 billion yuan, compared with - 7.122 billion yuan in the previous year [12] - Valin Steel's operating income in 2025 was 121.138 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 15.94%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.611 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 28.49%. The non - recurring net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.309 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 76.80% [12] - Bayi Iron & Steel's operating income in 2025 was 18.748 billion yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was negative again, with the loss expanding to 1.879 billion yuan, marking the company's fourth consecutive year of losses [12] - China Shenhua's operating income in 2025 was 294.916 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 13.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 52.849 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 5.3% [13] - Yankuang Energy's operating income in 2025 was 144.933 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 7.17%. The net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company was 8.381 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 41.9% [13] - Xinji Energy's operating income in 2025 was 12.28 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 3.51%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 2.136 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.73%. The non - recurring net profit was 2.14 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.37% [13] - Company Investment and Contracts: - Baofeng Energy announced that it will jointly establish the Beijing Beijiao United Lingyue No. 2 Equity Investment Center (Limited Partnership) with Beijing Beijiao United Investment Fund Management Co., Ltd. The total subscribed capital of the fund is 96.6 million yuan, and Baofeng Energy, as a limited partner, will subscribe 93.6 million yuan, accounting for 96.89%. The fund mainly invests in AI technology application projects [13] - China State Shipbuilding Corporation announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Dalian Shipbuilding Industry Co., Ltd., jointly with China Shipbuilding Trading Co., Ltd., signed a contract on March 30, 2026, with a well - known domestic shipowner for the construction of 10 very large crude carriers (VLCCs). The contract amount is between 8 billion and 9 billion yuan, to be paid in US dollars, with delivery dates from 2028 to 2030. The contract is subject to English law, and disputes will be resolved through London arbitration. The implementation of this contract will have a positive impact on the company's future operating income and profit, and is conducive to improving the company's medium - and long - term market competitiveness and profitability [13] - International News: - Russia's Deputy Foreign Minister Andrey Rudenko said that Russia will not supply oil to countries that maintain price caps. Russian President Vladimir Putin has extended the counter - measures against the price caps on Russian oil and oil products until June 30, 2026 [13] - Rio Tinto announced on March 30 that the operation of its iron ore ports in the Pilbara region of Western Australia has returned to normal after bad weather [13] - Affected by the Middle East conflict, the prices of diesel and regular gasoline in Germany have risen significantly recently. The German Federal Ministry of Economics announced on March 30 that measures to limit the number of price increases at gas stations to once a day at noon will take effect on April 1. Gas stations can still reduce prices at any time. The German government said that this measure aims to suppress sharp price fluctuations and improve price transparency [13] - According to foreign media reports, Indian Power Ministry Deputy Minister Shripad Naik said on March 30 that due to the shortage of natural gas supply caused by the US - Iran conflict, India is accelerating the approval process for the commissioning of wind power projects and battery energy storage systems [14] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the weekly output of the five major steel products, steel mill inventories, social inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities, blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates, national daily average hot metal output, apparent consumption of the five major steel products, and the basis between Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices and the May contracts [16][17][22][27][28][30]