农产品早报-20260401

Group 1: Report General Information - The report is an agricultural products morning report released by the agricultural products team of the research center on April 1, 2026 [1][2] Group 2: Corn/Starch Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price in Jinzhou decreased by 10 yuan, the price in Shekou decreased by 10 yuan, the basis decreased by 15 yuan, the trade profit remained unchanged, the import profit increased by 7 yuan, the basis of starch decreased by 8 yuan, and the processing profit increased by 10 yuan [3] Market Analysis - Short - term: The supply of corn is tight, which supports the price, but the increase in the supply of policy wheat and the expected increase in market circulation may suppress the price; for starch, the high price affects sales, but the tight supply of raw materials supports the price, and the slow recovery of downstream consumption may limit price increases [4] - Long - term: For corn, focus on import and domestic auction policies; for starch, focus on downstream consumption rhythm and inventory changes [4] Group 3: Sugar Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price in Liuzhou decreased by 20 yuan, the price in Nanning decreased by 40 yuan, the price in Kunming decreased by 30 yuan, and the basis increased by 23 yuan, while the number of warehouse receipts remained unchanged [5] Market Analysis - International market: The fundamentals are slightly stronger, with India lowering the production forecast and ISO lowering the expected global surplus in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season. Crude oil prices affect raw sugar valuation [5] - Domestic market: After the festival, there are discussions about import policies, the futures market fluctuates strongly. Low - cost imported sugar and high - pressure on the spot market limit the upside [5][6] Group 4: Cotton/Cotton Yarn Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price of 3128 cotton decreased by 110 yuan, the price of imported M - grade US cotton increased by 1, the import profit decreased, the number of warehouse receipts + forecasts increased by 103, the price of Vietnamese yarn decreased by 20, the import profit of Vietnamese yarn increased by 37, and the 32S spinning profit increased by 96 [7] Market Analysis - The low initial inventory offsets most of the increase in production. With the expansion of domestic textile production, good downstream profits, and consumption - promotion policies, cotton demand is expected to improve. The decrease in Xinjiang's planting area in the new season makes cotton suitable for long - term long positions [7] Group 5: Eggs Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price in Shandong decreased by 0.20 yuan, the price in Henan decreased by 0.15 yuan, the price in Hubei decreased by 0.09 yuan, the basis decreased by 51 yuan, the price of white - feather broilers increased by 0.05 yuan, and the price of live pigs decreased by 0.15 yuan [9] Market Analysis - The slowdown in the culling of laying hens may be due to farmers' active delay in culling. The increase in the number of chicks replenished from January to February and the good replenishment sentiment from March to April slow down the process of capacity reduction. However, the increase in feed costs compresses the profit margin of egg - laying hen farming. The market is treated in a reverse - spread pattern [10] Group 6: Apples Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the national inventory increased by 7, the Shandong inventory increased by 37, and the Shaanxi inventory increased by 20 [11] Market Analysis - The apple market mainly trades high - quality goods, with stable overall transactions. In the western region, the supply of high - quality goods is limited, and the number of merchants decreases in the second half of the week. In Shandong, the number of merchants looking for high - quality goods increases, and the price of high - quality goods is stable and slightly firm. The sales atmosphere in the sales area is not strong, and there is no obvious backlog in the transit warehouse [11] Group 7: Pigs Market Data - From March 25 to March 31, 2026, the price in Anhui decreased by 0.15 yuan, the price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.15 yuan, and the basis increased by 235 yuan [11] Market Analysis - The spot price rebounded slightly on the weekend. The reduction in supply by some farmers at the end of the month, the replenishment of second - fattening pigs at low prices, and the enhanced sentiment of some retail farmers to hold back sales, but the demand is limited. There is still pressure to reduce production and inventory in the near term, and the low - level fluctuations increase. Pay attention to the evolution of capacity reduction [11]