建信期货集运指数日报-20260401

1. Report Information - Report Name: "集运指数日报" [1] - Date: April 1, 2026 [2] - Researcher: He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin, Nie Jiayi [3] 2. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 3. Core Viewpoints - The current shipping market is in the off - season, with supply of shipping capacity in April at a historically high level. The potential blockade risk in the Mandatory Straits has limited impact on European routes, and as the situation in the Hormuz Strait calms down, the market may return to the fundamental logic of oversupply. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities for near - term off - season contracts [7] 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Spot Market: The April spot quotes are stable, but some airlines are cutting prices to attract cargo. Maersk's opening price for the first week of April is $2300 per large container, and the PA Alliance quotes $2500 per large container, while offline prices have dropped to $1800 - $1900, indicating weak demand [7] - Operation Suggestion: Given the off - season and high supply, and the limited impact of the Mandatory Straits risk, focus on short - selling opportunities for near - term off - season contracts [7] 4.2 Industry News - Overall Market: Due to the ongoing geopolitical tensions, the China export container shipping market is facing challenges. Most long - distance route freight rates have risen this week, driving up the comprehensive index. On March 27, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index was 1826.77 points, up 7.0% from the previous period [8] - European Routes: The preliminary manufacturing PMI rose to 51.4, better than expected. However, the eurozone's composite PMI in March dropped to 50.5, the lowest since May last year. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to European base ports was $1703/TEU, up 4.1% from the previous period [8] - Mediterranean Routes: The supply - demand fundamentals are weaker than those of European routes, and the market freight rate has slightly declined. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Mediterranean base ports was $2764/TEU, down 0.7% from the previous period [8] - North American Routes: The preliminary composite PMI in the US in March dropped to 51.4, hitting an 11 - month low. The freight rate from Shanghai Port to the US West and East base ports on March 27 was $2352/FEU and $3264/FEU respectively, up 14.5% and 11.7% from the previous period [8][9] - Persian Gulf Routes: The military conflict in the Middle East continues, and the freight rate continues to rise. On March 27, the freight rate from Shanghai Port to Persian Gulf base ports was $3728/TEU, up 12.2% from the previous period [9] - Geopolitical News: Trump plans to end the military action against Iran through diplomatic means; China has three ships passing through the Hormuz Strait; Iran has various statements and actions regarding the war and the Hormuz Strait, and has proposed a bill to charge ships passing through the Hormuz Strait [9] 4.3 Data Overview - Container Shipping Spot Prices: From March 23 to 30, 2026, the SCFIS for European routes increased by 3.5% (from 1693.26 to 1752.54), and the SCFIS for US West routes increased by 23.4% (from 1024.11 to 1263.4) [11] - Container Shipping Index (European Routes) Futures Market: The report provides data on the trading of multiple contracts such as EC2604 - EC2612 on March 31, including opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and change in open interest [6] - Shipping - Related Data Charts: The report includes multiple charts related to shipping data, such as container ship capacity in Europe, global container ship orders, Shanghai - Europe base port freight rates, etc. [18][22]