香烟市场Ethiopia的动态在烟草税政策和税率调整之后

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the tobacco industry in Ethiopia. Core Insights - The introduction of a new mixed consumption tax system in early 2020 led to a significant increase in taxes on tobacco products, with the tax per pack rising by over 200% initially and then by more than 150% in 2024. This has resulted in a drastic decline in the legal cigarette market, which is expected to shrink by approximately 67% from 2019 to 2025 [6][14][104]. - The illegal tobacco market has seen substantial growth, with projections indicating an increase of 125% from 2019 to 2025. The illegal market's share has surged from about 35% in 2019 to an estimated 78% by 2025 [59][67][105]. Summary by Sections Legal Tobacco Market - The legal cigarette market in Ethiopia was dominated by the National Tobacco Enterprise (NTE), which held a monopoly on the production, sale, import, and export of tobacco products. The market size in 2019 was 278 million packs, but it plummeted to 168 million packs in 2020, a 39% decrease, and continued to decline in subsequent years [5][20][21]. - By 2023, the legal market volume was only 187 million packs, which is still about 33% lower than in 2019. Projections for 2025 indicate a further decline to approximately 79 million packs, representing a 67% decrease from 2019 levels [21][23][28]. Illegal Market Development - The illegal tobacco market has expanded significantly, with the number of brands reaching nearly 50 annually from 2021 to 2025. The top five illegal brands accounted for an average of 45% of the illegal market share during this period [43][105]. - The illegal market's size is expected to reach 338 million packs by 2025, having grown from an estimated 150 million packs in 2019. This growth is attributed to the lower prices of illegal products, which do not reflect the increased taxes imposed on legal products [54][57][59]. Market Share and Pricing - The market share of the legal tobacco segment has drastically decreased from 65% in 2019 to just 22% in 2025, while the illegal segment has increased from 35% to 78% [67][107]. - Legal prices have risen significantly due to tax increases, with an average retail price increase of 51% in 2020, followed by 59% in 2024 and 80% in 2025. In contrast, the average price of the top illegal brands has increased at a much slower rate, indicating a strategy to maintain market share through lower pricing [32][76][105]. Tax Revenue Loss - The report highlights substantial tax revenue losses due to both the decline in the legal market and the growth of the illegal market. Cumulative tax revenue losses from 2020 to 2025 are estimated to reach approximately ETB 40.5 billion, which is about 4% of the total tax revenue collected in 2024 [92][94][109].