蜜雪集团：交接覆盖：26年国内外业务秉持“质量优先”，持续拓宽护城河

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Mixue Group has been downgraded to "Neutral" [2][4][13]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in 2026, the withdrawal of domestic subsidy policies and the shift in consumer purchasing habits towards online channels will increase the demands on the company's online operational capabilities against a high base. The company will adhere to a "quality-first" development strategy and slow down the pace of new store expansion while focusing on upgrading product raw materials and supply chains, which may pressure gross profit margins [4][14][15]. - Revenue projections for Mixue Group are estimated at RMB 37.28 billion, RMB 42.61 billion, and RMB 48.85 billion for 2026, 2027, and 2028 respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 11.1%, 14.3%, and 14.6%. Net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 6.19 billion, RMB 7.26 billion, and RMB 8.58 billion for the same years, with corresponding growth rates of 5.1%, 17.2%, and 18.3% [4][13][16]. - The company is facing operational challenges due to a shift in consumer habits towards online consumption, which has impacted its traditional offline store model. Management anticipates pressures on store turnover and profitability in 2026 and is implementing measures to drive revenue and profit growth [5][14][15]. Financial Projections - For the fiscal years 2026 to 2028, the projected diluted EPS is RMB 16.38, RMB 19.18, and RMB 22.67, with corresponding P/E ratios of 15.5X, 13.2X, and 11.2X [4][16]. - The company reported a total revenue of RMB 33.56 billion for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 35.2%, and a net profit of RMB 5.93 billion, up 33.1% year-on-year [16]. Operational Adjustments - The company is actively adjusting its operations in Southeast Asia, particularly in Indonesia and Vietnam, to ensure long-term profitability and address deficiencies in early store operations. The goal is to achieve net growth in overseas store numbers for 2026 [6][15]. - As of the end of 2025, Mixue Group operated nearly 4,500 overseas stores, primarily in Southeast Asia, and is also expanding into other regions, including Central Asia and the United States [6][15].