天然橡胶产业期现日报-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Natural Rubber - Supply is tight in the short - term, but supply pressure will gradually appear. Demand has some support but the terminal demand lacks positive guidance. The rubber price is expected to fluctuate widely in the range of 15,500 - 17,500, and the follow - up progress of the US - Iran conflict should be monitored [1]. Polyolefins - The supply pattern of domestic and foreign production cuts, declining import expectations, and increasing exports makes the inventory of the 05 contract of LLDPE and PP low. The core logic of "strong cost + reduced supply" dominates the pricing power. In April, the spot is expected to tighten and the basis to strengthen [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - For soda ash, the cost support weakens, and the profit of the combined - alkali method is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate, and the SA605 contract is expected to be in the range of 1,150 - 1,250. For glass, the cost support weakens, and the inventory pressure exists. It is also expected to fluctuate, and the FG605 contract has limited downward space. Short positions can be held [3]. LPG - The LPG price has declined. The upstream and downstream operating rates have decreased to varying degrees. The overall LPG market is affected by factors such as geopolitical risks and inventory changes, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as increased supply, inventory accumulation, and weak demand. PVC has a certain cost support, but the price may be adjusted weakly in the short - term due to factors such as weak export demand and fading chemical sentiment [5]. Urea - The urea supply has decreased slightly, and the inventory is at a relatively low level, providing bottom support for the price. However, the supply is still abundant, and the demand is in a slack period. The market lacks clear driving factors, and it is expected to continue to operate in a narrow range. The main contract is expected to be in the range of 1,830 - 1,900 [6]. Crude Oil - The main trading logic is "geopolitical support + policy suppression". In the short - term, the geopolitical risk premium has declined, and the oil price may turn to a weak - oscillation pattern. However, the supply shortage still exists, and the oil price will fluctuate between geopolitical support and policy suppression. The negotiation progress and the navigation situation in the Mandeb Strait need to be tracked [7]. Methanol - The methanol market has a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The supply is expected to increase in the long - term, while the demand is improving. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the risks of geopolitical situation changes and weakening MTO profits [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - For pure benzene, the supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is expected to improve. It may follow the oil price fluctuations, and the EB05 - BZ05 spread can be shorted at high levels. For styrene, the supply is stable, the demand is weakening, and the profit is being compressed. It also follows the oil price fluctuations [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - PX has a tight supply - demand expectation in April and still has price support. PTA has limited self - driving force and follows the cost fluctuations. Ethylene glycol has cost support and is expected to go up, but there is a risk of a pull - back. Short - fiber has weak self - driving force and follows the raw material fluctuations. Bottle - chip is expected to have a tight supply - demand situation and strong processing fees in April [11]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber - Spot Price and Basis: The prices of various rubber varieties have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling. The basis of full - latex has increased [1]. - Monthly Spread: The 9 - 1 spread has decreased, the 1 - 5 spread has increased, and the 5 - 9 spread has decreased significantly [1]. - Fundamental Data: The production of Thailand in January has increased, while that of Indonesia and India has decreased. The operating rates of semi - steel and full - steel tires are relatively stable. The export volume of tires in February has decreased, and the import volume of natural rubber has also decreased [1]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory has increased slightly, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber in the SHFE has decreased [1]. Polyolefins - Prices and Spreads: The closing prices of L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 have all declined. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [2]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rate of PE plants has decreased, while the weighted operating rate of PE downstream has increased. The operating rate of PP plants has decreased slightly, and the operating rate of PP powder has decreased significantly [2]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory of PE has increased, while the social inventory has decreased. The enterprise inventory and trader inventory of PP have both decreased [2]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Related Prices and Spreads: The spot prices of glass in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of glass 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - Soda - Ash - Related Prices and Spreads: The spot prices of soda ash in different regions are stable, and the futures prices of soda ash 2605 and 2609 have declined. The basis of 05 has increased [3]. - Supply: The capacity utilization rate and weekly output of soda ash have decreased, and the daily melting volume of float glass and photovoltaic glass has also decreased [3]. - Inventory: The factory - warehouse inventory of glass has decreased slightly, and the factory - warehouse inventory of soda ash has decreased slightly [3]. - Real - Estate Data: The new - construction area, construction area, completion area, and sales area of real estate have changed to different degrees, with some improving and some still in a negative growth state [3]. LPG - Prices and Spreads: The prices of LPG futures contracts have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed. The spot price in South China has decreased slightly [4]. - External - Market Prices: The prices of FEI and CP contracts have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [4]. - Inventory: The refinery storage - capacity ratio of LPG has decreased, while the port inventory and port storage - capacity ratio have increased slightly [4]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rate of upstream main - refineries has decreased, and the operating rate of downstream PDH has decreased [4]. PVC and Caustic Soda - Spot and Futures Prices: The prices of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees, with some rising and some falling [5]. - Overseas Quotes and Export Profits: The overseas quotes and export profits of caustic soda and PVC have changed [5]. - Supply: The operating rates of the caustic - soda and PVC industries have increased slightly, and the profits of some PVC production methods have decreased [5]. - Demand: The operating rates of the downstream industries of caustic soda and PVC have changed to different degrees [5]. - Inventory: The factory - warehouse inventory of caustic soda has increased, and the upstream factory - warehouse inventory and total social inventory of PVC have decreased [5]. Urea - Futures Prices and Spreads: The futures price of urea has oscillated weakly, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [6]. - Upstream Raw Materials: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam - coal are stable [6]. - Downstream Products: The prices of downstream products such as melamine and compound fertilizers are stable [6]. - Supply and Demand: The daily output of urea has decreased slightly, the operating rate of urea production plants has decreased, and the inventory has decreased [6]. Crude Oil - Crude - Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of Brent, WTI, and SC crude oil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [7]. - Refined - Oil Prices and Spreads: The prices of refined - oil products such as NYM RBOB, NYM ULSD, and ICE Gasoil have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have also changed [7]. - Refined - Oil Crack Spreads: The crack spreads of refined - oil products in different regions have decreased [7]. Methanol - Prices and Spreads: The closing prices of MA2605 and MA2609 have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [9]. - Inventory: The enterprise inventory, port inventory, and social inventory of methanol have all decreased [9]. - Upstream and Downstream Operating Rates: The operating rate of upstream domestic enterprises has increased, and the operating rate of downstream MTO devices has increased [9]. Styrene and Pure Benzene - Upstream Prices and Spreads: The prices of upstream raw materials such as Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, and CFR Japan naphtha have changed to different degrees [10]. - Styrene - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices of styrene spot and futures have declined, and the spreads between different contracts have changed [10]. - Inventory: The inventories of pure benzene and styrene in Jiangsu ports have decreased [10]. - Industrial - Chain Operating Rates: The operating rates of the pure - benzene and styrene industrial chains have changed to different degrees [10]. Polyester Industry Chain - Downstream Polyester Product Prices and Cash Flows: The prices and cash flows of downstream polyester products such as POY, FDY, and DTY have changed [11]. - PX - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of PX have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - PTA - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of PTA have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - MEG - Related Prices and Spreads: The prices and spreads of MEG have changed, and the basis and spread between different contracts have also changed [11]. - Industrial - Chain Operating Rates: The operating rates of the polyester industrial chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, and downstream products, have changed [11].