异动点评：出口好转难以扭转弱势格局，PVC行情有所降温

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since March 24th, PVC prices have continuously declined, and the market pricing logic has gradually returned to the reality of high inventory and weak demand [1]. - Although there is still some support from the supply contraction of ethylene - based PVC and export expectations, the price is expected to remain weakly volatile in the short - term, and the cost - side will limit the downward space in the long - term [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Since March 24th, PVC has continuously declined, giving back the previous gains, and the price center has significantly dropped [1]. Driving Factors Analysis Geopolitical Premium Cooling and Export Expectations Facing High - price Resistance - The previous strong rise of PVC prices was mainly due to the reduction of global ethylene production under geopolitical disturbances, which led to a significant decline in the domestic ethylene - based PVC operating rate and an enhanced expectation of domestic export substitution [3]. - As the overall sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has declined, the accumulated non - cost premium has been concentratedly given back. Foreign customers are resistant to high prices, and new export inquiries have decreased [3]. Internal Supply Hedging and Weak Recovery of Downstream Demand - While the price was rising due to the expected reduction of ethylene - based PVC supply, the domestic PVC internal supply structure changed. The production profit of calcium - carbide - based PVC improved, leading to an increase in its production load, and the overall supply reduction was limited [4]. - As of March 27th, the domestic ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 70.7%, a decrease of about 15% compared to the beginning of the month; the calcium - carbide - based PVC operating rate was 85.24%, an increase of 5% compared to the beginning of the month; the overall domestic PVC operating rate was 80.92%, a decrease of about 1.2% compared to 82% at the beginning of the month [4]. - The downstream demand for PVC has limited support for prices. Although the demand has been recovering after the Spring Festival, the actual increment is lower than expected. The operating rates of downstream industries such as pipes and profiles are still at a low level in recent years, and downstream enterprises mainly make rigid procurement [6]. - The high social inventory has suppressed the price, and the difficulty in selling at high prices in the spot market has forced the futures price to decline [6]. Outlook for the Future Market - In the short - term, the price is expected to remain weakly volatile until the high inventory is significantly reduced and the downstream operating rate substantially recovers [7]. - In the long - term, as the price continues to decline, the cost - side support will gradually appear and limit the downward space. Currently, the calcium carbide price is firm, and the raw material cost is still high [7]. - It is necessary to continuously monitor the impact of geopolitical situations on global energy prices, the actual export situation of domestic PVC, and the equipment maintenance rhythm [11].