沪铜产业日报-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - The main contract of Shanghai copper oscillates strongly, with an increase in open interest, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material side of the fundamentals shows that the TC spot index of copper concentrate continues to reach new lows, and the expectation of tightening global copper mine supply is gradually strengthening, providing a solid cost - support logic for copper prices. On the supply side, the capacity utilization rate of copper smelters is gradually recovering, but the pressure of global raw material supply and the rapid decline of domestic copper concentrate port inventory in the first quarter may limit the growth rate of domestic production to some extent. On the demand side, as the peak season of "Golden March and Silver April" deepens and copper prices fall due to geopolitical conflicts, the production enthusiasm of domestic downstream copper processing enterprises is boosted, and they replenish inventory at low prices. In terms of inventory, the inflection point of social inventory depletion is confirmed, and industry demand is gradually improving. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and boosted demand. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has both lines above the 0 - axis, and the red bars are slightly converging. The conclusion is to conduct short - term long trades at low prices with a light position, and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai copper is 97,030.00 yuan/ton, up 1,690.00 yuan; the price of LME 3 - month copper is 12,483.00 US dollars/ton, up 100.50 US dollars. The spread between the main contract and the next - month contract is - 20.00 yuan/ton, down 30.00 yuan. The open interest of the main contract of Shanghai copper is 186,251.00 lots, up 502.00 lots. The net position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai copper is - 61,409.00 lots, down 6,271.00 lots. The LME copper inventory is 362,425.00 tons, down 175.00 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory of cathode copper is 359,135.00 tons, down 51,986.00 tons. The LME copper cancelled warrants are 67,750.00 tons, up 150.00 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouse receipts of cathode copper are 212,893.00 tons, down 2,856.00 tons. The COMEX copper inventory is 587,166.00 short tons, down 955.00 short tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of SMM 1 copper spot is 96,855.00 yuan/ton, up 1,255.00 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 copper spot is 97,025.00 yuan/ton, up 1,290.00 yuan. The CIF Shanghai (pyrometallurgical, ER) bonded warehouse price is 68.50 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average premium of Yangshan copper is 61.00 US dollars/ton, down 4.00 US dollars. The basis of the CU main contract is - 175.00 yuan/ton, down 435.00 yuan. The LME copper cash - to - 3 - month spread is - 79.46 US dollars/ton, up 3.09 US dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The import volume of copper ore and concentrates is 231.03 million tons, up 231.03 million tons. The copper smelter's rough smelting fee (TC) is - 68.85 US dollars/kiloton, down 1.53 US dollars. The price of copper concentrate in Jiangxi is 87,290.00 yuan/metal ton, up 1,290.00 yuan; the price of copper concentrate in Yunnan is 87,990.00 yuan/metal ton, up 1,290.00 yuan. The processing fee of blister copper in the south is 1,100.00 yuan/ton, down 700.00 yuan; the processing fee of blister copper in the north is 700.00 yuan/ton, down 700.00 yuan [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The output of refined copper is 132.60 million tons, up 9.00 million tons. The import volume of unwrought copper and copper products is 320,000.00 tons, down 60,000.00 tons. The social inventory of copper is 41.82 million tons, up 0.43 million tons. The price of 1 bright copper wire scrap in Shanghai is 63,340.00 yuan/ton, up 400.00 yuan. The ex - factory price of 98% sulfuric acid of Jiangxi Copper is 1,450.00 yuan/ton, up 200.00 yuan. The price of 2 copper scrap (94 - 96%) in Shanghai is 78,250.00 yuan/ton, up 50.00 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The output of copper products is 222.90 million tons, up 0.30 million tons. The cumulative completed investment in power grid infrastructure is 837.53 billion yuan, up 79.84 billion yuan. The cumulative completed investment in real estate development is 9,612.11 billion yuan, down 11.10 billion yuan. The monthly output of integrated circuits is 4,807,345.50 million pieces, up 415,345.50 million pieces [2]. 3.6 Industry News - US President Trump said he is willing to end military operations against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed, believing the war with Iran is likely to end soon, and other countries can reopen the Strait of Hormuz without US military assistance. US Defense Secretary Hedgeseth said the US's "top priority" is to seek an agreement to end the war with Iran. Iranian President Pezeshkiyan said Iran is willing to end the war on the condition that its demands are met, especially getting a guarantee of no more aggression. - Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi held talks with Pakistani Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Dar in Beijing, and they exchanged views on the situation in the Gulf and the Middle East and put forward five initiatives: immediately stop hostilities, start peace talks as soon as possible, ensure the safety of non - military targets, ensure the safety of shipping lanes, and ensure the primary status of the UN Charter. - The Monetary Policy Committee of the central bank held its first - quarter regular meeting, studying the main ideas of the next - stage monetary policy, suggesting to give play to the integrated effect of incremental and stock policies, comprehensively use various tools, strengthen monetary policy control, and grasp the intensity, rhythm, and timing of policy implementation. The meeting pointed out that all kinds of structural monetary policy tools should be used well and tool management should be optimized to maintain the stable operation of the financial market. - China's economic prosperity level has rebounded. In March, as the resumption of work and production accelerated after the Spring Festival, both production and demand expanded simultaneously. China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI output indices all returned to the expansion range, reaching 50.4%, 50.1%, and 50.5% respectively, up 1.4, 0.6, and 1 percentage points from the previous month. - According to data released by the Ministry of Finance, from January to February, the total operating income of state - owned enterprises was 12.57 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.2%; the total profit was 626.62 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. At the end of February, the asset - liability ratio of state - owned enterprises was 65.4%, a year - on - year increase of 0.5 percentage points. - Kansas Fed President Schmid warned that the Fed should not ignore the impact of soaring energy prices caused by the Iran conflict on inflation. He said, "Given that inflation is already high, we should not assume that the inflation caused by rising oil prices is only temporary." He is worried that the inflation rate will stay around 3%. - According to UN analysis, the disruption caused by the Iran war may lead to a GDP loss of 120 - 194 billion US dollars in Arab countries, an increase of up to 4 percentage points in the regional unemployment rate, a loss of about 3.6 million jobs, and push up to 4 million people into poverty. Goldman Sachs estimates that if the conflict continues until the end of April, the GDP of Qatar and Kuwait may shrink by 14% this year, and the GDP of Saudi Arabia and the UAE may decline by about 3% and 5% respectively [2].