瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20260401

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint - Short - term PVC is expected to fluctuate weakly due to the bearish domestic supply - demand situation and the weakening marginal benefits of exports [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5,256 yuan/ton, a decrease of 97 yuan; the trading volume decreased by 197,035 hands; the open interest decreased by 40,159 hands; the net long position of the top 20 futures holders was 25,362 hands [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of ethylene - based PVC in East China was 5,262.59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in East China decreased by 221.85 yuan; the price of ethylene - based PVC in South China was 5,425 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC in South China decreased by 148.75 yuan; the CIF price of PVC in China and Southeast Asia was 1,060 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price of PVC in Northwest Europe was 1,100 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the basis of PVC was - 2 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 3,010 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream average price of calcium carbide in North China was unchanged; the mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Northwest China decreased by 49.5 yuan; the mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was unchanged; the CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 999 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of VCM increased by 30 US dollars/ton; the CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC increased by 70 US dollars/ton; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price of EDC increased by 70 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 85.24%, an increase of 0.8%; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 0.53%; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC increased by 1.46%; the total social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.03 million tons; the total social inventory of PVC in East China decreased by 0.69 million tons; the total social inventory of PVC in South China decreased by 0.34 million tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.45; the cumulative value of new housing construction area decreased by 53,686.06 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate construction area was 535,372.16 - 124,518.13 million square meters; the cumulative value of real estate development investment was 2,871.41 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC increased by 0.49%; the 40 - day historical volatility of PVC increased by 0.21%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options of PVC decreased by 6.9%; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options of PVC decreased by 6.9% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - From March 20th to March 26th, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.92%, an increase of 0.80% compared with the previous period; from March 21st to 27th, the downstream operating rate of PVC increased by 4.3% to 45.96%, among which the operating rate of pipes increased by 2% to 41.2%, and the operating rate of profiles increased by 3.04% to 37.39%; as of March 26th, the social inventory of PVC was 1.374 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 70.63%; from March 20th to March 26th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC increased by 2.62% to 5,533 yuan/ton, and the cost of ethylene - based PVC increased by 7.84% to 7,867 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased by 228 yuan/ton to - 35 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased by 322 yuan/ton to - 778 yuan/ton [3].