瑞达期货合成橡胶产业日报-20260401

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Due to the continuous impact of the recent geopolitical situation in the Middle East on crude oil and shipping, the supply of crude oil and butadiene within the region is tight. Under the influence of soaring raw material prices and potential supply gaps, the production losses of cis - butadiene rubber have deepened significantly, leading some plants to reduce production or shut down. The Zhejiang Transfar cis - butadiene plant is undergoing rotational inspections, further reducing supply. It is expected that the inventory of cis - butadiene rubber enterprises will continue to decline [2]. - The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises fluctuated slightly last week. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are working towards quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate. However, some individual enterprises may have short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which will slightly drag down the overall capacity utilization rate. The br2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,000 - 18,000 in the short term [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber was 16,785 yuan/ton, a decrease of 565 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract was 65,209 lots, a decrease of 7,028 lots. The synthetic rubber 5 - 6 spread was 185 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The total number of warehouse receipts for butadiene rubber in the warehouse was 24,980 tons, with no change [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The mainstream price of cis - butadiene rubber (BR9000) from different petrochemical companies in different regions decreased. For example, the price of BR9000 from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong was 17,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the price of BR9000 from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong was 17,800 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [2]. - The basis of synthetic rubber was 1,415 yuan/ton. The price of Brent crude oil was 112.78 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.21 US dollars/barrel; the price of naphtha CFR Japan was 1,206.5 US dollars/ton, an increase of 63.5 US dollars/ton. The price of butadiene in the Shandong market was 17,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 400 yuan/ton. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene was 1,450 US dollars/ton, with no change; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China was 2,580 US dollars/ton, with no change. The price of WTI crude oil was 102.88 US dollars/barrel [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The weekly capacity of butadiene was 159,300 tons, a decrease of 100 tons; the capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 67.99%, a decrease of 1.72 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene was 23,000 tons, a decrease of 4,600 tons. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units was 53.79%, a decrease of 0.5 percentage points [2]. - The monthly output of cis - butadiene rubber was 140,400 tons, a decrease of 9,500 tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate of cis - butadiene rubber was 53.19%, a decrease of 12.39 percentage points. The weekly production profit of cis - butadiene rubber was - 3,349 yuan/ton, a decrease of 849 yuan/ton. The social inventory of cis - butadiene rubber was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons; the manufacturer's inventory was 32,250 tons, a decrease of 1,750 tons; the trader's inventory was 9,260 tons, an increase of 650 tons [2]. 3.4 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires was 78.3%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points; the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires was 70.77%, an increase of 0.05 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires was 8.13 million pieces, a decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires was 34.61 million pieces, a decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2]. - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong were 38.97 days, a decrease of 2.12 days; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong were 43.72 days, a decrease of 0.87 days [2]. 3.5 Industry News - The capacity utilization rate of tire sample enterprises fluctuated slightly. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises are working towards quarterly targets, which supports the overall capacity utilization rate [2]. - In February 2026, the heavy - truck market in China sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a decrease of nearly 30% compared with January 2025 and about 8% compared with the same period last year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of the heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The decline in February was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2]. - As of March 25, the inventory of domestic cis - butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 41,500 tons, a decrease of 1,100 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 2.58% [2].