瑞达期货碳酸锂产业日报-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market is in a stage of increasing supply and improving demand expectations. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling risks in trading rhythm [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 158,620 yuan/ton, up 1,420 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 123,556 hands, up 6,288 hands; the position of the main contract is 212,931 hands, down 4,985 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 3,160 yuan/ton, up 2,520 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 30,111 hands/ton, unchanged [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 161,500 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 158,000 yuan/ton, down 1,500 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 2,880 yuan/ton, down 2,920 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 2,420 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the average price of amblygonite is 14,675 yuan/ton, down 325 yuan; the price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 5,150 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 53,520 tons, down 5,950 tons; the monthly import volume is 26,426.79 tons, down 431.27 tons; the monthly export volume is 596.08 tons, up 124.52 tons; the monthly operating rate of lithium carbonate enterprises is 47%, down 5 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 141,600 MWh, down 26,400 MWh; the price of lithium hexafluorophosphate is 106,500 yuan/ton; the price of lithium manganate is 54,500 yuan/ton; the price of lithium cobaltate is 400,750 yuan/ton; the price of ternary material (811 type) in China is 202,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the price of ternary material (622 power type) in China is 182,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan [2] 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The price of ternary material (523 single - crystal type) in China is 198,500 yuan/ton, down 2,000 yuan; the monthly operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 45%, down 5 percentage points; the price of lithium iron phosphate is 59,300 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan; the monthly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathodes is 55%, up 1 percentage point; the monthly output of new energy vehicles is 694,000 vehicles, down 347,000 vehicles; the monthly sales volume is 765,000 vehicles, down 180,000 vehicles; the cumulative sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles is 41.18%, up 0.90 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 1,710,000 vehicles, down 125,000 vehicles; the monthly export volume of new energy vehicles is 282,000 vehicles, down 20,000 vehicles; the cumulative export volume is 583,000 vehicles, up 301,000 vehicles [2] 3.6 Industry News - Zimbabwe's cabinet approved a report on economic flagship projects in the Central Province and Masvingo Province and will maintain the ban on raw ore exports to promote value - added processing, beneficiation, industrialization, and manufacturing development [2] - On March 31, 2026, the launch meeting of the National New Energy Vehicle Power Battery Traceability Information Platform was held in Tianjin. Relevant work progress and future plans for the recycling and utilization of new energy vehicle waste power batteries were introduced, and the operation points of the platform were explained [2] - On March 31, the China Actuarial Association and the China Banking and Insurance Information Technology Management Co., Ltd. released information on the claims of new energy vehicle insurance in 2025. In 2025, the insurance industry insured 43.58 million new energy vehicles, an increase of 12.48 million or 40.1% compared with the previous year; the premium income was 190 billion yuan, providing a risk protection amount of 159 trillion yuan; the underwriting loss was 5.6 billion yuan, a reduction of 100 million yuan year - on - year; the comprehensive cost rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points year - on - year [2] - The China Automobile Dealers Association's "China Automobile Dealer Inventory Alert Index Survey" shows that in March 2026, the inventory alert index of Chinese automobile dealers was 57.5%, up 2.9 percentage points year - on - year and 1.3 percentage points month - on - month, above the boom - bust line [2] 3.7 Market Analysis - The main lithium carbonate contract oscillated weakly, with a decline of 2.62% at the close. The position decreased month - on - month, the spot price was at a premium to the futures price, and the basis weakened compared with the previous day [2] - Fundamentally, on the raw material side, the operating rate of lithium salt plants increased, boosting the demand for lithium ore. However, due to tightened overseas mine exports and undetermined resumption time of domestic large mines, the expectation of future supply tightening strengthened, and lithium ore quotes remained firm. On the supply side, the operating rate of smelters increased, and they adopted a strategy of holding prices and惜售, with few spot sales. In terms of imports, the increase in shipments from Chile will supplement the supply after arrival, so the domestic supply is increasing. On the demand side, downstream material factories are taking a cautious wait - and - see attitude, and there is a game between upstream and downstream around lithium prices, with a weak trading sentiment in the spot market. In terms of expectations, due to the good export demand for new energy vehicles and the subsequent intensive release of new models by car companies, the demand expectation may improve from the consumption side [2] - Technically, in the 60 - minute MACD, the double lines are above the 0 axis, and the green bars are expanding [2]