瑞达期货天然橡胶产业日报-20260401

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View - The ru2609 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16,300 - 16,800 in the short - term, and the nr2606 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 13,500 - 14,000 in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 16,415 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 70; the closing price of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 13,665 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 60 [2] - The 5 - 9 spread of Shanghai rubber is - 90 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 35; the 5 - 6 spread of 20 - number rubber is - 105 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 40 [2] - The spread between Shanghai rubber and 20 - number rubber is 2,750 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 10. The position of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is 71,598 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 9,869; the position of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 32,309 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 6,180 [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai rubber is - 28,015, with a week - on - week increase of 288; the net position of the top 20 in 20 - number rubber is - 6,586, with a week - on - week increase of 2,184 [2] - The exchange warehouse receipts of Shanghai rubber are 125,410 tons, with no change; the exchange warehouse receipts of 20 - number rubber are 43,545 tons, with no change [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of state - owned whole latex in the Shanghai market is 16,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 350; the price of Thai standard STR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 [2] - The price of Vietnamese 3L in the Shanghai market is 16,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the price of Malaysian standard SMR20 is 2,015 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 15 [2] - The price of Thai RMB mixed rubber is 15,700 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100; the price of Malaysian RMB mixed rubber is 15,650 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 100 [2] - The price of Qilu Petrochemical's styrene - butadiene 1502 is 19,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 300; the price of Qilu Petrochemical's cis - butadiene BR9000 is 19,000 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 500 [2] - The basis of Shanghai rubber is 235 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 280; the basis of non - standard products of the main contract of Shanghai rubber is - 645 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 95 [2] - The price of 20 - number rubber in the Qingdao market is 13,943 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 144; the basis of the main contract of 20 - number rubber is 278 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week decrease of 204 [2] - The market reference price of smoked sheets of Thai raw rubber is 79.55 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.6; the market reference price of rubber sheets of Thai raw rubber is 71.05 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 1.05 [2] - The market reference price of glue of Thai raw rubber is 80 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.5; the market reference price of cup rubber of Thai raw rubber is 52.95 Thai baht/kg, with a week - on - week increase of 0.85 [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The theoretical production profit of RSS3 is 138.6 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 13.6; the theoretical production profit of STR20 is - 16 US dollars/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 16 [2] - The monthly import volume of technically classified natural rubber is 139,600 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 29,500 tons; the monthly import volume of mixed rubber is 242,400 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 103,100 tons [2] - The weekly operating rate of all - steel tires is 70.77%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05; the weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires is 78.3%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.05 [2] 3.4 Downstream Situation - The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 38.97 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.12; the inventory days of semi - steel tires in Shandong at the end of the week is 43.72 days, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.87 [2] - The monthly output of all - steel tires is 8.13 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.58 million pieces; the monthly output of semi - steel tires is 34.61 million pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 25.07 million pieces [2] 3.5 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 17.93%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.04; the 40 - day historical volatility of the underlying is 22.08%, with a week - on - week increase of 0.02 [2] - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options is 25.49%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.41; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 25.48%, with a week - on - week decrease of 2.42 [2] 3.6 Industry News - In February 2026, China's heavy - truck market sold about 75,000 vehicles (wholesale caliber, including exports and new energy), a nearly 30% decrease from January 2025 and about an 8% decrease from 81,400 vehicles in the same period of the previous year. From January to February 2026, the cumulative sales of China's heavy - truck industry exceeded 180,000 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of about 17%. The double - decline in the heavy - truck industry in February 2026 was mainly due to seasonal fluctuations during the Spring Festival [2] - As of March 29, 2026, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 691,400 tons, a 0.85% increase from the previous period. The bonded area inventory was 120,100 tons, a 1.62% decrease; the general trade inventory was 571,300 tons, a 1.38% increase [2] - As of March 26, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 79.37%, a week - on - week increase of 0.05 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 1.18 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.24%, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 percentage points and a year - on - year increase of 3.88 percentage points [2] 3.7 Viewpoint Summary - Recently, the total inventory at Qingdao Port has slightly increased. The bonded warehouse has shown de - stocking, and the general trade warehouse has continued to accumulate inventory. The total port inbound volume has slightly increased. The de - stocked rubber types in the bonded warehouse are mainly old Indonesian standard rubber and African rubber. Recently, rubber prices have fluctuated unstably, and downstream tire factories have made cautious replenishments for the rigid demand of mixed rubber, resulting in a slight increase in the total inventory [2] - Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises mainly fluctuated within a narrow range. At the end of the quarter, some enterprises strived to meet quarterly tasks, which supported the overall capacity utilization rate, but some enterprises had short - term maintenance arrangements at the end of March or early April, which slightly dragged down the overall capacity utilization rate [2]