Orient Securities·2026-04-01 09:37Investment Rating - The investment rating for Meituan-W (03690.HK) is "Buy" and is maintained [2][3]. Core Views - The report indicates that short-term industry subsidies are becoming more rational and competition is easing, suggesting that the company's instant delivery business is likely to enter a period of reduced losses and recovery. There is also an upward turning point in profitability for the in-store segment [2][3]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report forecasts that the company's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 will be -3.78, -2.69, and 2.39 CNY respectively, an improvement from previous estimates of -3.21, -4.20, and -0.11 CNY. The estimated reasonable valuation for the company is 631.5 billion HKD, with a target price of 102.28 HKD [3][12]. - The company's revenue is projected to grow from 276,745 million HKD in 2023 to 461,730 million HKD in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 25.82%, 21.99%, 8.08%, 11.12%, and 13.89% respectively [3][15]. Business Segments - Instant Delivery Business: The report combines revenue from food delivery and flash purchase services, estimating a revenue of 211.6 billion CNY for 2026, corresponding to a market value of 342.7 billion HKD [12]. - In-store and Hotel Business: This segment is expected to achieve a post-tax operating profit of 15.4 billion CNY in 2026, with a corresponding market value of 177 billion HKD [12]. - New Business: This includes overseas delivery services and grocery retail, with an estimated revenue of 121.8 billion CNY for 2026, leading to a market value of 111.9 billion HKD [12]. Key Financial Metrics - The company's gross profit margin is expected to be 30.43% in 2025, improving to 33.97% by 2027. The net profit margin is projected to recover from -6.40% in 2025 to 3.19% in 2027 [3][15]. - The report highlights a significant reduction in losses for the instant delivery business, with losses narrowing to approximately 2 CNY per order for food delivery in Q4 [9][10].