In China: The 100-Year Storm on the Horizon and How the Five Big Forces Are Playing Out

Economic and Debt Challenges - China is facing significant debt and economic problems, with falling real estate prices, equity and asset prices, employment, and employee compensation contributing to a dour economic mood[26] - The average retirement age in China is 53, while the average age of death is 84, creating a 31-year gap where retirees must be supported, adding financial strain to families and the government[27] - The leadership needs to engineer a "beautiful deleveraging" to balance deflationary debt reduction with inflationary monetary easing, or risk a Japanese-style "lost decade"[10] Internal Wealth and Political Dynamics - The internal wealth gap has intensified, leading to government actions perceived as anti-capitalist, such as common prosperity initiatives and arbitrary wealth redistribution, which are fear-inducing for capitalist elites[28] - Xi Jinping's leadership has shifted towards stricter control and autocratic policies, with purges and crackdowns on corruption, particularly in the military, creating a more oppressive environment[28][29] Geopolitical and Trade Tensions - The US-China great-power conflict is causing foreign and domestic investors to diversify or leave China, with trade and capital flows becoming a geopolitical cat-and-mouse game[30] - China's economic model, based on increasing global manufacturing share, is under threat due to rising tariffs and protectionism, particularly in industries like electric vehicles, batteries, and green energy[30] Technological and Environmental Pressures - Technology development is a critical battleground, with China and the US competing in areas like AI, quantum computing, and clean energy, with significant geopolitical and economic implications[15] - Climate-related issues, including droughts, floods, and pandemics, are top-of-mind threats that will likely impose significant costs and hardships on China[31]