公用事业涨价会带来“再通胀”吗？

Price Changes Overview - Public utility prices have increased significantly, with industrial electricity rising by 7%, industrial natural gas by 21%, public transport fares by 12%, and residential heating by 24% from late 2021 to early 2023[63]. - Water prices in China are approximately 53% of the average price in 30 countries, while electricity prices are about 59% of OECD countries and 81% of emerging markets[19]. Impact on CPI and PPI - A 5% increase in water, electricity, gas, and high-speed rail prices would directly raise CPI by 0.22 percentage points and PPI by 0.37 percentage points; a 10% increase would raise CPI by 0.43 percentage points and PPI by 0.73 percentage points[39]. - The complete impact of a 5% increase in utility prices on CPI and PPI is estimated to be 0.3 and 0.7 percentage points, respectively; for a 10% increase, the impacts are 0.6 and 1.5 percentage points[7]. Inflation Concerns - Current weak overall demand means that price increases alone are insufficient to create inflationary pressure; without a significant rebound in demand, price increases will have only a temporary effect[8]. - Historical data shows that utility price increases do not lead to sustained CPI growth; for example, after a water price increase in Beijing, CPI growth quickly returned to near zero levels[9]. Factors Influencing Price Changes - Rising costs in the public utility sector have pressured profit margins, with costs increasing from 87.7% to 91.7% of revenue between 2020 and 2021[59]. - Local fiscal pressures have increased due to reduced land transfer revenues, prompting discussions on raising utility prices to alleviate financial strain[62].