2023~2024电池行业年度报告

Industry Overview - The global battery industry experienced continued growth and adjustment in 2023, with electric passenger vehicle sales surpassing 10 million units for the first time, a 32% year-on-year increase despite higher interest rates [8] - The average price of new electric vehicles dropped by 25% due to a price war among manufacturers, bringing the average price of new EVs to just 4% higher than the overall new car market [8] - Lithium costs have fallen by 80% since peaking at the end of 2022, leading to a 16% reduction in battery cell prices to $107/KWh [8] - By 2030, global planned battery capacity is expected to reach 7 TWh, with China accounting for 68.5% of this capacity, while North America and Europe focus on NMC chemistry [8] Key Trends - Major OEMs have widely adopted the NACS charging standard, and cell shapes are trending towards large prismatic cells due to the widespread use of LFP chemistry [8] - Advanced battery chemistries such as LMFP, sodium-ion, sulfur, and lithium metal are making progress in commercialization, while innovations in mining, supply chain, manufacturing, and software remain key areas of R&D and entrepreneurship [8] - The BESS (Battery Energy Storage Systems) market is emerging rapidly, with opportunities and challenges in financing, integration, regulation, and battery chemistry [8] Financial Performance - Despite the Inflation Reduction Act, most listed battery companies underperformed in 2023 due to macroeconomic conditions and rising interest rates affecting hard-tech companies [60] - SPACs related to batteries performed in line with the broader battery equity capital market, with rising capital costs leading investors to withdraw from capital-intensive, unprofitable companies [64] - Many battery companies have limited communication with investors about growth rates, leading to a disconnect between Wall Street analysts and company performance, with short interest increasing for 13 companies [67] Battery Manufacturing - Global lithium-ion battery production capacity is expected to grow steadily until 2030, driven primarily by electric vehicles (EVs) and energy storage systems (ESS) [96] - By 2030, global lithium-ion battery production capacity is projected to reach approximately 7 TWh, with China accounting for 68.5% of this capacity [96] - Northvolt has made significant investments in battery production capacity, recently raising$ 5 billion to expand its operations [96] Cell Costs - Battery costs are expected to continue declining until 2027, with average LFP cell production costs in China projected to fall below $55/kWh by 2028, and NMC811 below$ 65/kWh [84] - The cost outlook is heavily influenced by lithium supply-demand dynamics, with Chinese yield rates nearing practical limits (~99%) [85] - Outside China, higher processing, labor, and material costs make production more expensive, with NMC811 pouch cell production costs in the US approximately 80% higher than in China in 2023 [85] Market Leaders - CATL dominates the global battery cell manufacturer market share, with its strong position in overseas markets mitigating risks from intensifying domestic competition in China [107] - CATL's technological leadership and cost control limit the impact of battery price declines, and Fitch Ratings expects the company to generate sufficient operating cash flow to support investments in innovation, global capacity expansion, and new business ventures [107] Manufacturing Challenges - As production scales up, insufficient quality control of key characteristics poses risks to battery reliability, with online measurement technologies continuing to develop in 2023 [115] - Ultrasonic sensors and machine learning are being used to detect internal defects, such as electrolyte wetting quality [115]