Slowing demand growth and surging supply put global oil markets on course for major surplus this decade

Investment Rating - The report indicates a major supply surplus emerging in the oil market this decade, suggesting a cautious investment outlook for oil companies [5]. Core Insights - Global oil demand growth is expected to slow, peaking around 106 million barrels per day by the end of the decade, influenced by energy transitions and structural economic shifts [3][5]. - Global oil production capacity is projected to rise to nearly 114 million barrels per day by 2030, exceeding demand by 8 million barrels per day, leading to unprecedented levels of spare capacity [4]. - The increase in oil demand will primarily come from fast-growing economies in Asia, particularly India, and the petrochemicals sector, while advanced economies are expected to see a decline in oil demand [5][6]. Summary by Sections - Demand Forecast: Global oil demand averaged just over 102 million barrels per day in 2023, with an expected increase of 3.2 million barrels per day by 2030, driven by emerging economies and specific sectors [3][5]. - Supply Capacity: Non-OPEC+ producers are expected to account for three-quarters of the increase in global production capacity, with the U.S. contributing 2.1 million barrels per day [6]. - Refining Capacity: Global refining capacity is set to expand by 3.3 million barrels per day from 2023 to 2030, which should suffice to meet demand for refined products, despite a potential slowdown in capacity growth in Asia after 2027 [7][8].