Oil 2024-Analysis and forecast to 2030

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the oil industry, but it highlights significant shifts and challenges that could impact investment strategies moving forward [4][10]. Core Insights - Global oil markets are facing structural shifts that will reshape demand and trade flows, with a projected plateau in oil demand towards the end of the decade [10][15]. - The rise of non-OECD economies, particularly China and India, will dominate oil demand growth, while advanced economies are expected to see a decline [17][46]. - The transition to clean energy technologies and increased efficiency measures are expected to significantly curb oil demand growth, particularly in road transport and electricity generation [15][38]. Summary by Sections Demand - Global oil demand is forecasted to plateau at around 106 mb/d by the end of the decade, with a net increase of 3.2 mb/d from 2023 to 2030 [15][26]. - Demand growth will be primarily driven by non-OECD Asian economies, especially India and China, while OECD demand is projected to decline from 45.7 mb/d in 2023 to 42.7 mb/d by 2030 [17][46]. - The shift towards petrochemicals will account for a significant portion of demand growth, with naphtha and LPG/ethane consumption expected to rise by 3.7 mb/d over the forecast period [15][44]. Supply - World oil production capacity is expected to increase by 6 mb/d to nearly 113.8 mb/d by 2030, surpassing projected global demand of 105.4 mb/d [12][19]. - Non-OECD producers will lead the capacity build, accounting for 76% of the net increase, with the United States contributing significantly [19][20]. - Saudi Arabia has shifted its focus from increasing crude oil capacity to boosting domestic gas supply, reflecting a changing strategy in response to market conditions [10][18]. Investment and Exploration - Global upstream capital expenditures rose by 13% to USD 538 billion in 2023, with expectations for a further 7% increase in the following year [20]. - The report indicates a front-loaded build in oil production capacity that may lose momentum towards the end of the forecast period, creating potential challenges for producers [10][12]. Refining and Trade - Global refining capacity is projected to rise by 3.3 mb/d from 2023 to 2030, but this increase will not keep pace with the demand for refined products [21][22]. - The global oil trade is expected to shift eastward, driven by Asia's growing structural shortfall in crude and product supply [23][25]. Government Policies - Government policies are increasingly supporting the growth of biofuels, with a steady demand for ethanol feedstock expected [21][22]. - The report emphasizes the need for refiners to adapt to changing demand patterns, particularly as non-refined products capture a significant share of projected demand growth [21][22].