半导体设备行业深度：驱动因素、发展趋势、产业链及相关公司深度梳理

Industry Overview - Semiconductor equipment is the cornerstone of the semiconductor industry, playing a crucial role in the efficient and high-quality production of semiconductor devices [3] - The industry is divided into front-end and back-end equipment, with front-end equipment being more technologically complex and capital-intensive [4] - The development of semiconductor equipment has evolved through early development (1950-1970), rapid development (1980-1990), and globalization and technological innovation (2000-present) stages [5][6][8] Market Analysis - Front-end equipment accounts for 88% of the semiconductor equipment market, while back-end packaging and testing equipment make up 5% and 7% respectively [13] - China's semiconductor equipment market has grown significantly, with a CAGR of 26.9% over the past decade, becoming the largest market globally in 2020 [15] - Domestic semiconductor equipment manufacturers are making progress, with key projects achieving breakthroughs in 2023, indicating potential for further localization [16] Industry Cycle - The semiconductor industry is cyclical and closely tied to global economic conditions, with sales growth fluctuating more significantly than GDP growth [9] - Over the past decade, the industry has shown both cyclical and growth characteristics, driven by new technologies like 5G, AI, and IoT [10] - The semiconductor equipment market is expected to recover in 2024-2025, with a strong rebound anticipated in 2025, reaching $124 billion [11] Driving Factors - The rise of generative AI and high-bandwidth memory chips is driving significant investment in wafer fabs, with global 300mm wafer fab investments expected to grow from$96.12 billion in 2023 to $137.025 billion by 2027 [17] - AI's increasing penetration is boosting demand for DRAM and NAND, with AIPC and AI phone adoption expected to drive significant growth in DRAM bit demand [18] - Advanced packaging is becoming a key focus, with investments in 2.5D/3D packaging technologies expected to reach$66.11 billion in China from 2024-2033 [31] Policy Environment - Policies in the US, Japan, and the Netherlands have restricted China's access to advanced semiconductor equipment, but have also accelerated domestic R&D efforts [40] - China's semiconductor industry has benefited from supportive policies, including tax incentives and investment from the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund [47] Industry Chain Analysis - The semiconductor equipment industry chain includes upstream components and systems, midstream equipment manufacturing, and downstream semiconductor production [48] - Precision components are critical to semiconductor equipment, with the global market for these components estimated at $35-40 billion in 2020 [50] - The market for precision components is relatively fragmented, with no single company dominating, and domestic companies are gradually entering the global supply chain [53]