2024中国消费趋势调研

Consumer Sentiment - Consumers exhibit cautious expectations for growth in 2024, with anticipated growth rates between 2.2% and 2.4%[4] - The primary support for expected consumption growth is a projected increase in average disposable income by 2.5% and a slight rise in the number of households by 0.4%[4] - The proportion of consumption in disposable income is expected to decrease by 0.2 percentage points, indicating a strong savings inclination among consumers[4] Demographic Insights - Different consumer groups show varied confidence levels, with Gen Z, affluent seniors, and wealthy middle-aged individuals being notably more optimistic[62] - In contrast, the new middle class in first and second-tier cities and rural elderly populations exhibit the most pessimistic outlooks, which may suppress consumption[62] Spending Trends - The overall consumer sentiment is influenced by concerns over job stability, income fluctuations, and asset depreciation, leading to a significant impact on spending expectations[44] - Anticipated daily consumption growth for pessimistic groups is significantly lower, averaging -0.3% due to high fixed expenditures like education and elder care[44] Category-Specific Consumption - Four potential growth categories identified are education, food and beverages, health products and services, and travel, driven by emotional and demand-based factors[50] - Conversely, three risk categories include home appliances/furniture, tobacco, and consumer electronics, with spending expected to decline[50] Behavioral Changes - Consumer behavior is shifting primarily due to changes in purchase frequency and quantity rather than price, indicating a trend towards "buying less but better" in certain categories[66] - The trend of consumption upgrading and downgrading is prevalent, with consumers increasingly selective about their spending choices[66] Market Outlook - Despite the cautious sentiment, over two-thirds of respondents remain optimistic about the market, suggesting potential for future consumption growth[54] - Companies are encouraged to explore niche markets and specific demographics to identify growth opportunities amidst the cautious consumer landscape[78]