Will gold prices hit another all-time high in 2024?

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish medium-term forecast for gold, with price targets upgraded to $2,500/oz by the end of 2024 and $2,600/oz in 2025 [7][10][8]. Core Insights - Gold prices are expected to average $2,500/oz in Q4 2024, driven by geopolitical risks, anticipated Fed rate cuts, and central bank buying [2][8]. - The structural bull case for gold remains intact despite rising prices, with significant central bank purchases and a reluctance among physical holders to sell [6][11]. - The relationship between gold prices and U.S. real yields has decoupled, indicating that gold's appeal is driven by factors beyond traditional interest rate dynamics [4][9]. Summary by Sections Gold Price Drivers - Geopolitical tensions, inflation hedging, and central bank buying are key drivers for gold prices in 2024 [2][6]. - Central banks purchased 1,037 tonnes of gold in 2023, with strong net purchases of 290 tonnes in Q1 2024, indicating robust demand [11][12]. Market Dynamics - The report highlights a significant decoupling of gold prices from U.S. real yields, suggesting that gold's safe-haven status is becoming more prominent amid economic uncertainty [4][9]. - Investor appetite for physical gold remains strong, with expectations that ETF holdings may rebound as interest rates decline [16][15]. Future Outlook - J.P. Morgan forecasts a Fed rate cut in November 2024, which could further support gold prices [9][7]. - The report anticipates that structural drivers such as U.S. fiscal deficit concerns and geopolitical instability will continue to support gold prices, regardless of the U.S. election outcome [6][11].