全球科技周期手册：准备触顶

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the technology sector, particularly focusing on hardware and semiconductors, indicating a cautious outlook as the industry approaches cyclical peaks [6][10][45]. Core Insights - The technology sector, excluding software, is facing significant cyclical risks as it approaches peak levels, particularly in semiconductors, with indicators suggesting a potential downturn in demand starting in the second half of 2024 [6][10]. - Key metrics indicate that semiconductor capital expenditures are expected to reach a historical high of $186 billion by 2025, while inventory levels have been rising since Q2 2024, signaling potential oversupply [10][18]. - Historical trends show that during previous downturns, the global tech index's forward price-to-book ratio compressed by an average of 35%, with earnings declining by 51% over four quarters [6][10]. Summary by Sections Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor revenue cycle is projected to peak in Q3 2024, with a consensus forecast indicating a significant slowdown in growth thereafter [10][18]. - The report highlights that the semiconductor sector typically experiences a downturn characterized by a 41% average decline in stock prices, with the average duration of downturns being around 11 months [10][22][73]. Investment Opportunities - Companies with strong free cash flow, relatively good earnings revisions, and undervalued forward price-to-earnings ratios are identified as potential outperformers during the upcoming downturn [10][12][24]. - The report suggests focusing on high-quality, defensive stocks that can withstand cyclical pressures, particularly in the semiconductor and hardware sectors [10][12][24]. Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes the cyclical nature of the semiconductor industry, where overproduction during boom periods often leads to significant corrections as demand normalizes [6][10][20]. - It notes that the current market sentiment is overly optimistic, with a potential shift expected as earnings growth begins to decelerate [10][20][21]. Sector Performance - Historical data indicates that during downturns, certain segments like personal computing semiconductors and commodity memory are most affected, while larger, high-quality firms tend to perform better [12][22][24]. - The report also discusses the importance of maintaining a diversified portfolio to mitigate risks associated with cyclical downturns in the technology sector [10][12][107].