国内铝土矿龙头，未来业绩弹性大

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 6.82 CNY, based on a 15x PE for 2024 [6][7]. Core Insights - The company is expected to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of 6.3 to 7.3 billion CNY in 2023, representing a year-on-year increase of 50% to 74% [2]. - The growth in performance is attributed to enhanced production planning, process control, and improved capacity utilization [2]. - The company benefits from being the largest bauxite producer in China, with a self-sufficiency rate exceeding 60% as of the end of 2022 [4]. - The increase in alumina prices is anticipated to positively impact the company's profits in 2024, following a recent price rise due to supply uncertainties [4]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's projected revenues for 2023-2025 are 284.3 billion CNY, 291.3 billion CNY, and 299 billion CNY, with growth rates of -2.29%, 2.47%, and 2.63% respectively [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 6.5 billion CNY, 7.8 billion CNY, and 9.2 billion CNY for the same period, reflecting growth rates of 55.25%, 19.85%, and 18.22% respectively [6]. - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 0.38 CNY, 0.45 CNY, and 0.54 CNY for 2023, 2024, and 2025 respectively [6]. Cost Management and Competitive Advantage - The company has managed to maintain profitability despite declining product prices, primarily due to reduced raw material costs and improved production management [3]. - The high self-sufficiency in bauxite and stable energy costs provide a competitive edge in the electrolytic aluminum production chain [5].