春节新房市场表现平淡，“小阳春”还会来吗？

Investment Rating - The report indicates a generally cautious outlook for the real estate market during the Spring Festival period, with a notable decline in new home sales compared to the previous year [2][29]. Core Insights - The new home sales area in representative cities during the Spring Festival (February 10-17, 2024) decreased by approximately 27% compared to the same period in 2023 [3][4]. - Despite various promotional activities and policy optimizations aimed at stimulating demand, consumer sentiment remains cautious, with many potential buyers still in a wait-and-see mode [2][29]. - The report highlights that while some first-tier cities like Beijing and Shenzhen showed signs of improved market sentiment due to policy support, actual transaction volumes did not reflect significant changes [29]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the Spring Festival period, the average daily sales area of new homes in 25 representative cities was 21.70 million square meters, down 27% year-on-year [6][4]. - Specific cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen saw minimal new home activity, with only one project in Shanghai under subscription during the holiday [8][11]. Consumer Behavior - A survey conducted during the Spring Festival revealed that 22.7% of respondents had purchased a home, while 46.9% engaged in property viewings but remained undecided [26]. - The primary concerns for potential buyers include expectations of further price declines and insufficient down payment funds, indicating a weak purchasing sentiment [28]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that the real estate market may gradually stabilize post-holiday, particularly in core first- and second-tier cities, as the effects of recent policy adjustments begin to materialize [31][29]. - The ongoing financing support for real estate projects is expected to alleviate some market pressures and improve buyer confidence in the near future [31].