Investment Rating - The report indicates a downward trend in lithium prices due to weakened demand and increased supply, suggesting a cautious investment outlook for the lithium industry in 2024 [1][2]. Core Insights - The lithium industry is experiencing a shift from supply shortages in 2022 to a slight oversupply in 2023, leading to a significant price decline, with battery-grade lithium carbonate averaging 259,000 CNY/ton in 2023, a 46% decrease from 2022 [1][2]. - The demand for lithium is expected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year in 2024, reaching 1.064 million tons LCE, but this growth is slower compared to previous years [2]. - Supply is projected to increase significantly, with an annual production capacity of 953,000 tons LCE in 2024, a 52.2% increase from 2023, leading to a widening supply-demand gap [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Review: Weakened Demand and Increased Supply - Prices for lithium salts have shown significant volatility, with battery-grade lithium carbonate prices fluctuating dramatically throughout 2023, ultimately falling to 96,900 CNY/ton by December 29, 2023 [12][15]. - Upstream mining production has continued to grow, particularly with contributions from African mines, while midstream refining growth has slowed [12][19]. - Downstream demand for batteries has weakened, with purchasing intentions declining and inventory levels remaining low [30][32]. 2. Corporate Operations: Upstream Revenue Growth, Midstream Profit Decline - Upstream mining companies have seen revenue growth in 2023 due to increased sales volumes or higher prices, although production costs have also risen [34][38]. - Midstream refining companies have faced revenue declines and increased costs, with only Tianqi Lithium reporting revenue growth due to higher sales volumes and prices [41]. 3. Industry Trends: Oligopolistic Competition and Resource Acquisition - The lithium industry remains dominated by a few key players, with the top six companies accounting for 58.3% of global production capacity [2]. - Despite falling lithium prices, competition for mining resources remains intense, particularly in regions like Sichuan, where auction prices for lithium mines have surged dramatically [2]. 4. Outlook: Weak Supply and Demand, Downward Price Trend - The lithium industry is expected to see both supply and demand growth rates slow in 2024, with prices continuing to trend downward [2]. - The average cash cost of lithium is projected to support prices around 70,000 to 80,000 CNY/ton in the short term, with upstream production capacity growth outpacing midstream refining [2].
锂行业深度研究之2024年展望：上游矿山承压，中游增速放缓
Zhao Shang Yin Hang·2024-02-22 16:00