库存亏损；2024财年指引：“选择和组合”

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive investment outlook for Albemarle Corporation, suggesting it has investment value despite recent losses, with the stock price significantly below historical averages [3]. Core Insights - Albemarle reported an adjusted net loss of $609.5 million for Q4 2023, primarily due to a $600 million inventory loss, which was much worse than the consensus estimate of $123.9 million [3]. - The company's Q4 2023 revenue was $2.356 billion, exceeding the consensus of $2.169 billion, attributed to a decline in lithium prices throughout the quarter [3]. - For FY 2024, Albemarle provided a wide guidance range for revenue of $5.5 billion to $7.6 billion, significantly below the consensus of $7 billion, and adjusted EBITDA guidance of $0.9 billion to $2.6 billion, compared to the consensus of $1.6 billion [3][4]. - The company anticipates a production growth rate of 10% to 20% in 2024, with expected progress on expansion projects in China and Australia [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2023 was a loss of $315 million, compared to a consensus estimate of $222.3 million, while excluding inventory losses, adjusted EBITDA was $289 million [3]. - Capital expenditures for Q4 2023 were $684 million, aligning with the guidance of $1.9 billion to $2.1 billion for the year [3]. 2024 Guidance - The guidance for FY 2024 is highly dependent on lithium pricing, with revenue expectations ranging from $5.5 billion to $7.6 billion and adjusted EBITDA from $0.9 billion to $2.6 billion [3][4]. - The energy storage segment is projected to generate revenue of $3.2 billion to $4.9 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $0.7 billion to $2.3 billion [7]. Production Outlook - The company expects production to grow by 10% to 20% in 2024, with a long-term forecast of a 16% annual growth rate by 2030 [4].