Workflow
12月美国国际资本流动报告点评:全球美元荒缓解,美国股债均受外资青睐
中银证券·2024-02-22 16:00

Investment Trends - From 2018 to 2023, Chinese investors net purchased 197.6billioninlongtermU.S.securities,representing9.7197.6 billion in long-term U.S. securities, representing 9.7% of the U.S. trade deficit with China during the same period, a decrease of 8.2 percentage points compared to 2012-2017[1] - As of June 2023, China's total investment in U.S. securities reached 237.9 billion, a 63.8% increase from the end of 2017[2] - The balance of equity securities was 122.1billion,accountingfor51.3122.1 billion, accounting for 51.3% of total U.S. securities investments, down 5.1 percentage points from 2017[2] Market Dynamics - In 2023, foreign capital exhibited a "buy high, sell low" trading pattern in U.S. stocks, with a significant net purchase of over 120 billion in June following a market rally[4] - The correlation between foreign net purchases of U.S. stocks and the year-on-year change in the S&P 500 index reached 70% from 2011 to 2023, indicating a strong relationship between the two[4] U.S. Treasury Securities - Private foreign investors continued to net buy U.S. Treasury securities throughout 2023, with only a slight net sell of 17.2billioninMay,whileofficialforeigninvestorsshowedinconsistentbuyingpatterns[7]Bytheendof2023,privateforeignholdingsofU.S.Treasuriesreached17.2 billion in May, while official foreign investors showed inconsistent buying patterns[7] - By the end of 2023, private foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries reached 4.2683 trillion, representing 53.0% of total foreign holdings, an increase of 3.3 percentage points from the previous year[20] Economic Outlook - Despite financial turbulence in March 2023, U.S. inflation trends remained a key macro trading theme, with a general decline in inflation and a resilient economy supporting a dual rise in U.S. stocks and bonds[10] - As of February 22, 2024, the S&P 500 index had risen 6.7% year-to-date, while the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield increased by 44 basis points, indicating a favorable environment for risk assets[11]