公用事业行业周报：煤价短期震荡&南澳分布式经验可借鉴

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the public utility sector, suggesting that the expected return for the industry is between -10% and 10% relative to the benchmark index [8]. Core Insights - The coal price has shown short-term fluctuations, with a notable increase from 908 to 933 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year, driven by low port inventories and increased demand during the Spring Festival [4]. - In Ningxia, significant investments in renewable energy and coal mining projects are expected to grow by over 50% in 2024, with a focus on energy security projects [4]. - The experience from South Australia in managing distributed solar energy, where wind and solar generation accounted for 75% of the energy mix, provides valuable lessons for operational demand management [4]. - Compared to early 2020, natural gas prices have returned to similar levels, while coal prices remain significantly higher, indicating a potential investment opportunity in the coal sector [5]. - The report highlights that leading power companies are currently undervalued, with expected dividend yields of over 6% in 2024, suggesting a favorable investment environment for thermal power stocks [5]. Summary by Sections Coal Market Dynamics - The coal price has increased due to low inventories and high demand during the Spring Festival, with a year-on-year increase in daily electricity consumption of 8.3% in southern provinces [4]. - Despite a recent price drop, coal production is resuming, indicating a potential balance in supply and demand [4]. Renewable Energy Investments - Ningxia's investment plan for 2024 aims for a 50% increase in renewable energy projects, focusing on large-scale solar and energy security initiatives [4]. Lessons from South Australia - South Australia's management of distributed solar energy includes measures such as establishing operational baselines and increasing storage capacity, which could be beneficial for other regions [4]. Valuation of Power Companies - The report suggests that leading power companies are undervalued, with potential for significant returns, particularly in the thermal power sector [5].