地产形势回顾与2024年展望

Group 1: Real Estate Investment Trends - Real estate investment in China has declined for two consecutive years, with a cumulative drop of approximately 20%[3] - In 2023, the total real estate development investment amounted to CNY 11.09 trillion, a year-on-year decrease of 9.6%[3] - The new construction area in 2023 was 9.54 billion square meters, only 42% of the historical peak in 2019[54] Group 2: Sales and Price Dynamics - In 2023, the sales area of commercial housing was 11.17 billion square meters, marking a year-on-year decline of 8.5%[57] - Housing prices have been declining for 24 consecutive months, with the longest downturn recorded in history[66] - The inventory clearance cycle for commercial housing has extended, with a narrow sales average indicating a prolonged period of high inventory[14] Group 3: Policy and Market Response - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market have intensified, focusing on financing for real estate companies and boosting residential demand[69] - The actual cost of home loans remains high, with the weighted average interest rate for personal housing loans at 3.97% as of December 2023[75] - The financing sources for real estate companies showed a negative contribution, with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 13.6% in 2023[70]