Investment Rating - The report gives the company a "Buy" rating, with an estimated value of 3.7 billion yuan, representing an 18% upside potential compared to the current market value of 3.1 billion yuan [61][84] Core Views - The company is a one-stop CXO service provider for small molecule innovative drug R&D and production, with a competitive advantage in drug design and early-stage participation in customer drug development [76] - The company's AI-assisted drug design platform (CADD/AIDD) has supported 52 new drug projects, with 2 in Phase I clinical trials and 3 in clinical application stages [76][121] - The company's commercial production business is expected to benefit from the expiration of Ticagrelor patents in Europe and the US in 2024-2025, driving rapid growth in overseas sales [84][132] Business Performance - Revenue grew from 126 million yuan in 2018 to 479 million yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 39.68% [27] - Net profit attributable to shareholders increased from 9 million yuan in 2018 to 67 million yuan in 2022, with a CAGR of 64.47% [27] - In Q2 2023, new service contracts signed reached 133.33 million yuan, a 42.1% increase from Q1 2023 [2] Business Segments - Drug R&D services accounted for 58% of revenue in H1 2023, with revenue growing from 57 million yuan in 2018 to 275 million yuan in 2022 [28] - Commercial production accounted for 19% of revenue in H1 2023, with Ticagrelor API and intermediates being the main products [28][118] - Process R&D accounted for 17% of revenue in H1 2023, with revenue growing from 25 million yuan in 2018 to 80 million yuan in 2022 [28] Industry Trends - The global API market size was 165.7 billion USD in 2018, with a CAGR of 6.59% from 2012 to 2018 [16] - The average R&D cost for new drugs increased from 1.188 billion USD in 2010 to 2.006 billion USD in 2021, while the average R&D cycle reached 7.14 years in 2020 [44] - The Asia-Pacific region is expected to be the fastest-growing CRO market globally from 2022 to 2028 [101] Future Projections - Revenue is expected to reach 576 million yuan in 2023, 761 million yuan in 2024, and 1.01 billion yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth of 20.3%, 32.2%, and 32.5% respectively [61][84] - Net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to reach 84 million yuan in 2023, 112 million yuan in 2024, and 153 million yuan in 2025, with year-on-year growth of 25.1%, 33.3%, and 37.0% respectively [61][84]
聚焦药物发现阶段的一站式综合服务商