Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Zhaojin Mining (01818 HK) with a revised target price of HK15.05 [1][2] - The target price implies a 36.0x P/E for 2023 and 22.1x P/E for 2024 [1] Core Investment Thesis - Gold prices are expected to rise in 2024, driven by potential Fed rate cuts, which historically benefit gold assets during monetary policy shifts [1][6][8] - Zhaojin Mining's net profit is forecasted to grow significantly in 2024-2025, supported by rising gold prices and declining production costs [1][6] - The company's gold production costs are expected to decrease due to expanded production scale, particularly with the new Haizhou mine expected to start operations in 2025 [6][14] Financial Performance and Projections - Zhaojin Mining's net profit is projected to increase from RMB 998 million in 2023F to RMB 1,620 million in 2024F and RMB 1,884 million in 2025F [4] - EPS is expected to grow from RMB 0.305 in 2023F to RMB 0.495 in 2024F and RMB 0.576 in 2025F [4] - Gross margin is forecasted to improve from 42.9% in 2023F to 48.1% in 2024F and 49.1% in 2025F [16] Production and Cost Analysis - Zhaojin Mining's gold production costs rose significantly from RMB 168.3/g in 2020 to over RMB 200.0/g in 2022 and RMB 214.67/g in H1 2023 due to production disruptions [6][13] - Production costs are expected to decline in 2024-2025 as production scales up, particularly with the Haizhou mine, which has a designed capacity of 15-20 tons of gold [6][14] Industry and Market Context - The gold market is expected to benefit from economic and geopolitical risks in 2024, with ongoing conflicts and economic instability supporting gold's role as a safe-haven asset [11][12] - The report highlights that gold prices historically perform well during Fed rate cut cycles, with three distinct phases of price increases observed in past cycles [8][9]
金价将再次上涨，维持“买入”