春节错期下全年营收微降，关注后续利润修复弹性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expectation that the stock price will outperform the benchmark index by over 20% in the next 6-12 months [12][5]. Core Insights - The company reported a slight decline in revenue for 2023, with total revenue of 6.81 billion RMB, down 1.1% year-on-year, and a net profit of 810 million RMB, down 17.5% year-on-year. The decline is attributed to the timing of the Spring Festival and rising sunflower seed costs [2][12]. - For Q4 2023, the company achieved revenue of 2.33 billion RMB, a decrease of 6.9% year-on-year, and a net profit of 300 million RMB, down 14.3% year-on-year. The report suggests that the pressure from raw material costs has eased [2][12]. - The company is expected to see a rapid recovery in revenue and net profit in 2024, supported by long-term category and channel expansion [2][12]. Summary by Sections Revenue Performance - The company’s revenue for 2023 was 6.81 billion RMB, reflecting a slight decline of 1.1% year-on-year. The timing of the Spring Festival affected revenue recognition, with some income from Q1 2023 reflected in 2022's results [2][12]. - In Q4 2023, revenue was 2.33 billion RMB, down 6.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year and the timing of the Spring Festival in 2024 [2][12]. Profitability Analysis - The net profit for 2023 was 810 million RMB, a decrease of 17.5% year-on-year, with a net profit margin of 11.8%, down 2.4 percentage points. This decline is mainly due to increased sunflower seed procurement costs [2][12]. - In Q4 2023, the net profit was 300 million RMB, with a net profit margin of 12.8%, down 1.1 percentage points. The report notes that raw material cost pressures have eased since the new procurement cycle began in October [2][12]. Future Outlook - The company is expected to recover quickly in 2024, with revenue and net profit projected to improve significantly due to favorable timing for revenue recognition related to the Spring Festival [2][12]. - The report anticipates that the increase in sunflower seed planting area will lead to a decline in procurement prices, which should enhance gross margins as high-cost inventory is depleted [2][12]. - Long-term growth is supported by a solid foundation for channel expansion and the synergistic promotion of nut products alongside sunflower seeds [2][12].