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2024年2月交付数据点评:短期销量承压,智能驾驶功能持续加速
09868XPENG(09868) 国联证券·2024-03-02 16:00

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is to "continue to pay attention" [5]. Core Viewpoints - The company delivered 4,545 vehicles in February 2024, representing a year-on-year decline of 24.4% [2]. - The X9 model has started large-scale deliveries in over 100 cities, with cumulative deliveries reaching 1,448 units, although its month-on-month performance was affected by supplier capacity issues [2][3]. - The XNGP intelligent driving feature has been fully opened to users in 243 cities, with a monthly active user penetration rate of 83% in urban driving, indicating strong user engagement and experience [3]. - The company is optimizing its channel structure and has established a robust charging network, with 1,057 charging stations as of September 30, 2023, which is expected to alleviate consumer range anxiety and drive sales growth [4]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - Projected sales for 2024 and 2025 (excluding the MONA brand) are 295,000 and 481,000 units, respectively, with corresponding revenues of 79.64 billion and 123.66 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 140.9% and 55.3% [5]. - The forecasted net profit for 2024 and 2025 is -4.5 billion and 0.75 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - The company’s revenue growth rates are expected to be 23.1% in 2023, 140.9% in 2024, and 55.3% in 2025 [6].