化学制药行业深度研究：2023年Q4原料药行业边际改善明显，去库存阶段或接近尾声

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Positive," indicating an expected overall return exceeding 5% above the CSI 300 index in the next six months [31]. Core Viewpoints - The raw material pharmaceutical industry in China showed significant marginal improvement in Q4 2023, suggesting that the destocking phase may be nearing its end [2][30]. - China's raw material drug production decreased by 7.6% year-on-year in 2023, with a total output of 3.427 million tons, but Q4 saw a notable narrowing of the decline to -3.9% [6][8]. - The export value of China's raw material drugs fell by 20.66% in 2023, totaling $40.909 billion, marking the first decline since 2017, although the decline rate in H2 was less severe than in H1 [10][12]. - The average export price of raw materials dropped to $3.3/kg in 2023, a decrease of 24.7% year-on-year, primarily due to increased competition and reduced demand from the COVID-19 pandemic [12][14]. Summary by Sections 1. Overview of China's Raw Material Drug Production and Exports - In 2023, China's raw material drug production saw its first decline since 2019, with a total output of 3.427 million tons, down from 3.708 million tons in 2022 [6][8]. - The export volume of raw materials increased by 5.4% year-on-year, exceeding 12 million tons, despite a significant drop in export value [10][12]. 2. Overview of India's Raw Material Drug Imports and Exports - In 2023, India's imports of raw materials from China increased significantly, with a total import value of $3.241 billion, up 3.40% year-on-year, and an import volume of 337,900 tons, up 21.14% [17][19]. - The average import price from China for raw materials was $9.59/kg, a decrease of 14.65% year-on-year [20][21]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are expanding into the formulation sector with strong performance certainty, such as Aorite (605116), and those with aggressive capacity expansion like Tonghe Pharmaceutical (300636) [30]. - The expected sales impact from the expiration of formulation patents from 2023 to 2026 is projected to be $175 billion, representing a 54% increase compared to the total from 2019 to 2022 [30].