Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for ZTO Express (02057.HK) [4] Core Views - ZTO Express has been included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect program effective March 4, 2024, which is expected to enhance liquidity and valuation [2] - The company has a solid industry position, high earnings certainty, and a strong balance sheet, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2] - Historical performance of other companies after being included in the Stock Connect indicates potential positive stock price movements [2] Financial Data and Earnings Forecast - Revenue projections for ZTO Express are as follows: - 2023: 43.35 billion RMB, 2024: 50.92 billion RMB, 2025: 56.87 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 23%, 17%, and 12% respectively [6] - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 9.31 billion RMB, 2024: 12.04 billion RMB, 2025: 14.69 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 34%, 29%, and 22% respectively [6] - The company’s price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 12.5x for 2023, 9.6x for 2024, and 7.9x for 2025 [6]
解读入通规则，看好流动性提升带动估值回升