社会服务行业双周报春 节 后 旅 游 热 度 降 温 ，板 块 较 节 前 超 跌 回 补

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating that the industry index is expected to perform better than the benchmark index in the next 6-12 months [1][38]. Core Insights - The social service sector saw a 9.74% increase in the last two trading weeks, ranking 8th among 31 industries in the Shenwan classification, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.60 percentage points [2][7]. - All sub-sectors within social services, including education, professional services, hotel and catering, tourism and scenic spots, and tourism retail, experienced growth, with education leading at +23.17% [2][10]. - The tourism market has cooled down post-Spring Festival, with a notable drop in prices for flights and hotels, making it an opportune time for off-peak travel [2][19]. Market Review - The social service sector's performance in the last two trading weeks was characterized by a recovery from a previous decline of 12.98% before the Spring Festival [2][10]. - Northbound capital increased its holdings in several companies, including a 0.19 percentage point increase in Shouqi Hotel to 1.86% and a 0.03 percentage point increase in China Duty Free to 6.28% [2][17]. - The job market showed significant growth, with new job postings and companies increasing by 156.81% and 171.05% respectively during the period from February 18 to February 25 [2][18]. Industry Dynamics - The domestic airline industry operated 108,800 passenger flights during the same period, with international flights decreasing by 2.57% [2][18]. - The Spring Festival travel period is expected to end on March 5, with daily passenger transport potentially reaching historical highs of 2 million for civil aviation and 12 million for railways [2][19]. - The mutual visa exemption agreement between China and Thailand took effect on March 1, leading to a surge in flight searches to Thailand [2][19]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong earnings growth certainty in the travel chain, including Changbai Mountain, Huangshan Tourism, Lijiang Co., Songcheng Performance, and others [2][33]. - It also highlights the potential recovery in the cross-border travel market, suggesting investments in China Duty Free and Wangfujing [2][33]. - Companies benefiting from the recovery of dining and banquet demand, such as Tongqinglou, and local consumption brands like Yuyuan Co., are also recommended [2][33].