Mabwell(SH:688062) Guolian Securities·2024-03-04 16:00Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 39.81 CNY based on a current price of 31.00 CNY [11]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a rare full-industry chain platform enterprise in China's innovative biopharmaceutical sector, focusing on antibody-drug conjugates (ADCs) which are expected to grow significantly in the global market from 14.2 billion USD in 2024 to 64.7 billion USD by 2030, with a CAGR of 28.8% [2][16]. - The company has multiple differentiated pipelines, including two marketed products and two NDA products expected to contribute to revenue growth [8][31]. - The core product 9MW2821 is anticipated to become a Best-in-Class Nectin-4 ADC, with promising clinical data and potential for international licensing [12][16]. Financial Projections - The company expects revenues of 1.28 billion CNY in 2023, 7.13 billion CNY in 2024, and 17.02 billion CNY in 2025, with year-on-year growth rates of 360.49%, 458.42%, and 138.64% respectively [9][13]. - The projected net losses for the same years are -1.05 billion CNY, -654 million CNY, and -356 million CNY, with EPS of -2.64 CNY, -1.64 CNY, and -0.89 CNY [9][13]. Pipeline and Market Position - The company has established a robust pipeline with 10 core products, including two in Phase III clinical trials, and is focusing on the oncology and age-related disease sectors [31][44]. - The marketed products, Junmai Kang and Mai Li Shu, have shown significant revenue contributions, with confirmed revenues of 99 million CNY and 23 million CNY respectively as of Q3 2023 [8][57]. ADC Market Opportunity - The ADC market is highlighted as a high-growth area, with the company’s 9MW2821 ADC showing superior efficacy compared to existing products like Padcev, which is already included in first-line treatment guidelines for metastatic bladder cancer [12][66]. - The report emphasizes the potential for ADCs to replace traditional chemotherapy, providing more targeted treatment options for cancer patients [58].