基于腾景AI高频模拟和预测：美国2月CPI同比维持不变或小幅下降，或为3.1%

CPI and Core CPI Trends - February CPI year-on-year is expected to remain unchanged or slightly decrease to 3.1%[2] - Core CPI year-on-year is projected to decrease by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%[2] - CPI energy year-on-year is expected to rise by 0.8 percentage points to -3.8%[2] - CPI food year-on-year is expected to decrease to 2.5%[2] Energy and Commodity Prices - Gasoline prices year-on-year increased slightly after a decline in January, with premium gasoline retail prices down by 3.56%[3] - Used car prices, a key component of core goods, showed a downward trend after a brief increase, impacting core CPI[12] PMI and Economic Indicators - February Markit Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.5, the highest since October 2022, exceeding expectations[3] - Services PMI fell to 51.3, a three-month low, while the Composite PMI dropped to 51.4[3] - Consumer confidence index decreased to 106.7 in February after three months of increase[3] Inflation and Monetary Policy Outlook - Inflation is expected to slow in Q1 2024, but core inflation remains resilient, making a return to 2% challenging in the near term[10] - The Federal Reserve may delay rate cuts until June due to persistent inflation and high interest rates[59] Food and Energy Inflation - CPI food year-on-year is expected to continue its downward trend, with a projected decrease to 2.5%[55] - Energy prices, particularly Brent crude, rebounded to $81.67 per barrel by February 27, contributing to a rise in CPI energy[50]